Persistent showers and cloud cover associated with a broad trough over the South China Sea are the dominant near-term drivers, limiting nocturnal radiative cooling and holding minimum temperatures near or slightly below the early-August climatological average of 26–27°C. High humidity and light southeasterly winds further reduce overnight drops, while official guidance points to lows around 25–26°C for August 3. The Hong Kong Observatory’s seasonal outlook for normal-to-above-normal temperatures provides longer-term context, yet short-range model consensus and recent daily forecasts emphasize precipitation-driven suppression through the first week of the month. Traders therefore assign the highest implied probabilities to 25°C and 24°C, reflecting the balance between typical monsoon conditions and the current synoptic pattern expected to persist into the resolution window.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLa temperatura più bassa di Hong Kong il 3 agosto?
La temperatura più bassa di Hong Kong il 3 agosto?
25°C 50%
24°C 35%
26°C 14%
23°C 9%
NUOVO
NUOVO
3 ago 2026
21°C o inferiore
<1%
22°C
2%
23°C
9%
24°C
35%
25°C
50%
26°C
14%
27°C
7%
28°C
2%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C o più
<1%
25°C 50%
24°C 35%
26°C 14%
23°C 9%
NUOVO
NUOVO
3 ago 2026
21°C o inferiore
$74 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$40 Vol.
2%
23°C
$104 Vol.
9%
24°C
$110 Vol.
35%
25°C
$546 Vol.
50%
26°C
$43 Vol.
14%
27°C
$59 Vol.
7%
28°C
$285 Vol.
2%
29°C
$47 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$32 Vol.
<1%
31°C o più
$0 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Persistent showers and cloud cover associated with a broad trough over the South China Sea are the dominant near-term drivers, limiting nocturnal radiative cooling and holding minimum temperatures near or slightly below the early-August climatological average of 26–27°C. High humidity and light southeasterly winds further reduce overnight drops, while official guidance points to lows around 25–26°C for August 3. The Hong Kong Observatory’s seasonal outlook for normal-to-above-normal temperatures provides longer-term context, yet short-range model consensus and recent daily forecasts emphasize precipitation-driven suppression through the first week of the month. Traders therefore assign the highest implied probabilities to 25°C and 24°C, reflecting the balance between typical monsoon conditions and the current synoptic pattern expected to persist into the resolution window.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercato aperto: Aug 1, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$1,338Data di fine
3 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 1, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Persistent showers and cloud cover associated with a broad trough over the South China Sea are the dominant near-term drivers, limiting nocturnal radiative cooling and holding minimum temperatures near or slightly below the early-August climatological average of 26–27°C. High humidity and light southeasterly winds further reduce overnight drops, while official guidance points to lows around 25–26°C for August 3. The Hong Kong Observatory’s seasonal outlook for normal-to-above-normal temperatures provides longer-term context, yet short-range model consensus and recent daily forecasts emphasize precipitation-driven suppression through the first week of the month. Traders therefore assign the highest implied probabilities to 25°C and 24°C, reflecting the balance between typical monsoon conditions and the current synoptic pattern expected to persist into the resolution window.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$1,338Data di fine
3 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 1, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent showers and cloud cover associated with a broad trough over the South China Sea are the dominant near-term drivers, limiting nocturnal radiative cooling and holding minimum temperatures near or slightly below the early-August climatological average of 26–27°C. High humidity and light southeasterly winds further reduce overnight drops, while official guidance points to lows around 25–26°C for August 3. The Hong Kong Observatory’s seasonal outlook for normal-to-above-normal temperatures provides longer-term context, yet short-range model consensus and recent daily forecasts emphasize precipitation-driven suppression through the first week of the month. Traders therefore assign the highest implied probabilities to 25°C and 24°C, reflecting the balance between typical monsoon conditions and the current synoptic pattern expected to persist into the resolution window.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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