Short-term forecast models from the Korea Meteorological Administration show lingering influence from the North Pacific high, favoring mostly clear skies and modest daytime heating over the Seoul-Incheon region on August 10, with ensemble guidance clustering daily maxima near 32–34 °C. Coastal sea-breeze effects at the Incheon station typically shave 1–2 °C off urban heat-island readings in Seoul, narrowing the probability mass between 33 °C and 34 °C while keeping extremes below 30 °C or above 36 °C unlikely. Recent model runs exhibit modest spread in afternoon mixing depth and boundary-layer moisture, which traders are weighting against climatological August baselines of 28–31 °C. Updated KMA guidance and any late shifts in high-pressure ridging ahead of the resolution window remain the key variables that could move the tightly bunched market-implied odds.