Recent forecast models and real-time observations from Warsaw confirm a peak temperature of exactly 30°C on August 16, driving the market's near-certain consensus on that outcome. Clear skies and light winds under a stable high-pressure system allowed daytime heating to reach this level, exceeding the long-term August average high of 23–24°C. Official meteorological data align closely with this threshold, with minimal model divergence. The 100% implied probability reflects strong agreement across monitoring sources, though an unexpected shift in afternoon cloud cover or localized measurement variations at the primary station could still alter the recorded maximum before final verification.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLa temperatura più alta a Varsavia il 16 agosto?
La temperatura più alta a Varsavia il 16 agosto?
30°C 100.0%
23°C or below <1%
24°C <1%
25°C <1%
$41,945 Vol.
$41,945 Vol.
16 ago 2026
23°C or below
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
Yes
31°C
No
32°C
No
33°C or higher
No
30°C 100.0%
23°C or below <1%
24°C <1%
25°C <1%
$41,945 Vol.
$41,945 Vol.
16 ago 2026
23°C or below
$267 Vol.
No
24°C
$368 Vol.
No
25°C
$626 Vol.
No
26°C
$1,347 Vol.
No
27°C
$2,771 Vol.
No
28°C
$4,456 Vol.
No
29°C
$5,652 Vol.
No
30°C
$8,682 Vol.
Yes
31°C
$6,240 Vol.
No
32°C
$5,283 Vol.
No
33°C or higher
$6,253 Vol.
No
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast models and real-time observations from Warsaw confirm a peak temperature of exactly 30°C on August 16, driving the market's near-certain consensus on that outcome. Clear skies and light winds under a stable high-pressure system allowed daytime heating to reach this level, exceeding the long-term August average high of 23–24°C. Official meteorological data align closely with this threshold, with minimal model divergence. The 100% implied probability reflects strong agreement across monitoring sources, though an unexpected shift in afternoon cloud cover or localized measurement variations at the primary station could still alter the recorded maximum before final verification.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercato aperto: Aug 14, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$41,945Data di fine
16 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 14, 2026, 12:57 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Esito proposto: Yes
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: Yes
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast models and real-time observations from Warsaw confirm a peak temperature of exactly 30°C on August 16, driving the market's near-certain consensus on that outcome. Clear skies and light winds under a stable high-pressure system allowed daytime heating to reach this level, exceeding the long-term August average high of 23–24°C. Official meteorological data align closely with this threshold, with minimal model divergence. The 100% implied probability reflects strong agreement across monitoring sources, though an unexpected shift in afternoon cloud cover or localized measurement variations at the primary station could still alter the recorded maximum before final verification.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$41,945Data di fine
16 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 14, 2026, 12:57 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Esito proposto: Yes
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: Yes
Recent forecast models and real-time observations from Warsaw confirm a peak temperature of exactly 30°C on August 16, driving the market's near-certain consensus on that outcome. Clear skies and light winds under a stable high-pressure system allowed daytime heating to reach this level, exceeding the long-term August average high of 23–24°C. Official meteorological data align closely with this threshold, with minimal model divergence. The 100% implied probability reflects strong agreement across monitoring sources, though an unexpected shift in afternoon cloud cover or localized measurement variations at the primary station could still alter the recorded maximum before final verification.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Domande frequenti