**Recent forecasts from multiple sources, including WeatherBug, Met Office, Chinese meteorological reports, and Yr.no, indicate a cooling trend for Wuhan on August 31 driven by increased cloud cover, scattered rain or thunderstorms, and northerly winds associated with typhoon peripheral influences.** Highs are projected in the 30–34°C range, with many models clustering near 31–32°C (e.g., 88°F/31°C in WeatherBug with 25% storm chance; 32°C in Met Office and some local outlooks; 24–34°C or 24–32°C in Hubei provincial guidance). This positions 32°C as the market leader (38% implied probability) because it aligns closely with ensemble consensus under the expected mostly cloudy, rainy conditions that limit daytime heating compared to the prior week’s 36–38°C peaks. Nearby outcomes at 31°C and 33°C capture remaining model spread from variable precipitation timing and intensity. Key scientific drivers include weakening subtropical high pressure allowing cooler, moister air advection from the north, combined with reduced insolation from cloudiness and evaporative cooling from rain—standard mechanisms that moderate maximum temperatures in humid subtropical climates like Wuhan’s during late-summer transitions. Updated model runs through August 29 reinforce this moderated profile, supporting the tight clustering around 31–33°C in trader pricing.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLa temperatura più alta a Wuhan il 31 agosto?
32°C 38%
33°C 26%
31°C 21%
34°C 9%
27°C or below
<1%
28°C
2%
29°C
4%
30°C
7%
31°C
21%
32°C
38%
33°C
26%
34°C
9%
35°C
1%
36°C
<1%
37°C or higher
<1%
32°C 38%
33°C 26%
31°C 21%
34°C 9%
27°C or below
<1%
28°C
2%
29°C
4%
30°C
7%
31°C
21%
32°C
38%
33°C
26%
34°C
9%
35°C
1%
36°C
<1%
37°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhhh
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercato aperto: Aug 29, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Fonte di risoluzione
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhhhRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhhh
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Fonte di risoluzione
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhhhRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...**Recent forecasts from multiple sources, including WeatherBug, Met Office, Chinese meteorological reports, and Yr.no, indicate a cooling trend for Wuhan on August 31 driven by increased cloud cover, scattered rain or thunderstorms, and northerly winds associated with typhoon peripheral influences.** Highs are projected in the 30–34°C range, with many models clustering near 31–32°C (e.g., 88°F/31°C in WeatherBug with 25% storm chance; 32°C in Met Office and some local outlooks; 24–34°C or 24–32°C in Hubei provincial guidance). This positions 32°C as the market leader (38% implied probability) because it aligns closely with ensemble consensus under the expected mostly cloudy, rainy conditions that limit daytime heating compared to the prior week’s 36–38°C peaks. Nearby outcomes at 31°C and 33°C capture remaining model spread from variable precipitation timing and intensity. Key scientific drivers include weakening subtropical high pressure allowing cooler, moister air advection from the north, combined with reduced insolation from cloudiness and evaporative cooling from rain—standard mechanisms that moderate maximum temperatures in humid subtropical climates like Wuhan’s during late-summer transitions. Updated model runs through August 29 reinforce this moderated profile, supporting the tight clustering around 31–33°C in trader pricing.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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