The 10-year Treasury yield, recently trading near 5.00% as of mid-September 2026 after rising roughly 80 basis points from February lows, reflects a shift in market-implied odds toward a higher-for-longer Fed policy path. The Federal Reserve’s September 0.25 percentage point hike to a 3.75–4.00% fed funds target range, combined with Chair Kevin Warsh’s emphasis on persistent inflation above the 2% goal and geopolitical oil-price pressures, has lifted both expected short rates and the term premium. Resilient economic growth, heavy AI-related capital spending, and elevated Treasury supply have further supported yields, while forecasts from institutions such as KKR now see the benchmark finishing 2026 around 5.1% and remaining near 4.9% by end-2027. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming CPI releases, labor-market data, and the next FOMC meetings that will clarify whether additional tightening or a prolonged pause materializes.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato$286,092 Vol.
30 dic 2026
Sotto il 3,9%
3%
Sotto il 3,8%
3%
Sotto il 3,7%
3%
Sotto il 3,6%
2%
Sotto il 3,5%
2%
Sotto il 3,0%
1%
Sotto il 2,0%
2%
Sotto l'1,0%
1%
$286,092 Vol.
Sotto il 3,9%
$54,748 Vol.
3%
Sotto il 3,8%
$62,740 Vol.
3%
Sotto il 3,7%
$35,630 Vol.
3%
Sotto il 3,6%
$8,903 Vol.
2%
Sotto il 3,5%
$43,095 Vol.
2%
Sotto il 3,0%
$7,958 Vol.
1%
Sotto il 2,0%
$564 Vol.
2%
Sotto l'1,0%
$40,696 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).The 10-year Treasury yield, recently trading near 5.00% as of mid-September 2026 after rising roughly 80 basis points from February lows, reflects a shift in market-implied odds toward a higher-for-longer Fed policy path. The Federal Reserve’s September 0.25 percentage point hike to a 3.75–4.00% fed funds target range, combined with Chair Kevin Warsh’s emphasis on persistent inflation above the 2% goal and geopolitical oil-price pressures, has lifted both expected short rates and the term premium. Resilient economic growth, heavy AI-related capital spending, and elevated Treasury supply have further supported yields, while forecasts from institutions such as KKR now see the benchmark finishing 2026 around 5.1% and remaining near 4.9% by end-2027. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming CPI releases, labor-market data, and the next FOMC meetings that will clarify whether additional tightening or a prolonged pause materializes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
Mercato aperto: Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ET
Volume
$286,092Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).The 10-year Treasury yield, recently trading near 5.00% as of mid-September 2026 after rising roughly 80 basis points from February lows, reflects a shift in market-implied odds toward a higher-for-longer Fed policy path. The Federal Reserve’s September 0.25 percentage point hike to a 3.75–4.00% fed funds target range, combined with Chair Kevin Warsh’s emphasis on persistent inflation above the 2% goal and geopolitical oil-price pressures, has lifted both expected short rates and the term premium. Resilient economic growth, heavy AI-related capital spending, and elevated Treasury supply have further supported yields, while forecasts from institutions such as KKR now see the benchmark finishing 2026 around 5.1% and remaining near 4.9% by end-2027. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming CPI releases, labor-market data, and the next FOMC meetings that will clarify whether additional tightening or a prolonged pause materializes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
Volume
$286,092Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...The 10-year Treasury yield, recently trading near 5.00% as of mid-September 2026 after rising roughly 80 basis points from February lows, reflects a shift in market-implied odds toward a higher-for-longer Fed policy path. The Federal Reserve’s September 0.25 percentage point hike to a 3.75–4.00% fed funds target range, combined with Chair Kevin Warsh’s emphasis on persistent inflation above the 2% goal and geopolitical oil-price pressures, has lifted both expected short rates and the term premium. Resilient economic growth, heavy AI-related capital spending, and elevated Treasury supply have further supported yields, while forecasts from institutions such as KKR now see the benchmark finishing 2026 around 5.1% and remaining near 4.9% by end-2027. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming CPI releases, labor-market data, and the next FOMC meetings that will clarify whether additional tightening or a prolonged pause materializes.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Domande frequenti