**USGS seismic monitoring has confirmed exactly three earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or greater worldwide between August 10 and 16, 2026, producing the market's 100% consensus for that outcome.** The events include a magnitude 7.4 quake in Colombia's Chocó region on or around August 10–12, a magnitude 7.7 event offshore Indonesia near Ende on August 14, and a magnitude 6.9 aftershock or related shock in the same Indonesian region on August 16. These align with typical global background rates of roughly 15–20 magnitude 6.5+ quakes per year and expected clustering along subduction zones in the Pacific Ring of Fire. With the observation window now closed and official catalogs finalizing, traders see negligible chance of additional qualifying events. Only unreported late aftershocks or a delayed catalog revision could realistically alter the count, though current observational data make that outcome highly improbable.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoQuanti terremoti di magnitudo 6.5 o superiore dal 10 al 16 agosto?
Quanti terremoti di magnitudo 6.5 o superiore dal 10 al 16 agosto?
3 100.0%
0 <1%
1 <1%
2 <1%
$38,514 Vol.
$38,514 Vol.
10 ago 2026
0
No
1
No
2
No
3
Sì
4
No
5
No
>5
No
3 100.0%
0 <1%
1 <1%
2 <1%
$38,514 Vol.
$38,514 Vol.
10 ago 2026
0
$11,993 Vol.
No
1
$6,814 Vol.
No
2
$6,885 Vol.
No
3
$6,762 Vol.
Sì
4
$2,289 Vol.
No
5
$1,040 Vol.
No
>5
$2,731 Vol.
No
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 10, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.**USGS seismic monitoring has confirmed exactly three earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or greater worldwide between August 10 and 16, 2026, producing the market's 100% consensus for that outcome.** The events include a magnitude 7.4 quake in Colombia's Chocó region on or around August 10–12, a magnitude 7.7 event offshore Indonesia near Ende on August 14, and a magnitude 6.9 aftershock or related shock in the same Indonesian region on August 16. These align with typical global background rates of roughly 15–20 magnitude 6.5+ quakes per year and expected clustering along subduction zones in the Pacific Ring of Fire. With the observation window now closed and official catalogs finalizing, traders see negligible chance of additional qualifying events. Only unreported late aftershocks or a delayed catalog revision could realistically alter the count, though current observational data make that outcome highly improbable.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 10, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Mercato aperto: Aug 7, 2026, 10:55 AM ET
Volume
$38,514Data di fine
17 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 7, 2026, 10:55 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Esito proposto: No
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: No
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 10, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.**USGS seismic monitoring has confirmed exactly three earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or greater worldwide between August 10 and 16, 2026, producing the market's 100% consensus for that outcome.** The events include a magnitude 7.4 quake in Colombia's Chocó region on or around August 10–12, a magnitude 7.7 event offshore Indonesia near Ende on August 14, and a magnitude 6.9 aftershock or related shock in the same Indonesian region on August 16. These align with typical global background rates of roughly 15–20 magnitude 6.5+ quakes per year and expected clustering along subduction zones in the Pacific Ring of Fire. With the observation window now closed and official catalogs finalizing, traders see negligible chance of additional qualifying events. Only unreported late aftershocks or a delayed catalog revision could realistically alter the count, though current observational data make that outcome highly improbable.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 10, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volume
$38,514Data di fine
17 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 7, 2026, 10:55 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Esito proposto: No
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: No
**USGS seismic monitoring has confirmed exactly three earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or greater worldwide between August 10 and 16, 2026, producing the market's 100% consensus for that outcome.** The events include a magnitude 7.4 quake in Colombia's Chocó region on or around August 10–12, a magnitude 7.7 event offshore Indonesia near Ende on August 14, and a magnitude 6.9 aftershock or related shock in the same Indonesian region on August 16. These align with typical global background rates of roughly 15–20 magnitude 6.5+ quakes per year and expected clustering along subduction zones in the Pacific Ring of Fire. With the observation window now closed and official catalogs finalizing, traders see negligible chance of additional qualifying events. Only unreported late aftershocks or a delayed catalog revision could realistically alter the count, though current observational data make that outcome highly improbable.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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