**Amcha Yisrael, the right-wing party launched in late August 2026 by former IDF Brigadier General Ofer Winter, remains a marginal contender in the October 27 Knesset election.** Recent polls after candidate lists closed on September 8-9 show the party receiving between roughly 2% and 4% of the vote, with several surveys placing it below or just above the 3.25% electoral threshold. A Channel 14 poll gave it 2.1%, while others from Walla/Lazar and i24NEWS projected four seats, equivalent to a narrow crossing near 3.3-3.5%. This volatility stems from competition on the right from established lists such as Religious Zionism-Zehut and Otzma Yehudit, plus the challenges facing any new entrant in a fragmented field where smaller parties frequently fail to consolidate support. Trader pricing, with the highest probability on under 2.5% and the next tier on 4-5%, reflects the skin-in-the-game consensus that Amcha Yisrael's late entry and limited polling consistency make a sub-threshold or low-single-digit result the most probable outcome, though modest gains remain possible if right-wing turnout consolidates in its favor before election day.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato5%+ 35%
3,25-4% 34%
2,5-3,25% 30%
4-5% 30%
NUOVO
NUOVO
30 nov 2026
<2,5%
47%
2,5-3,25%
30%
3,25-4%
34%
4-5%
30%
5%+
35%
5%+ 35%
3,25-4% 34%
2,5-3,25% 30%
4-5% 30%
NUOVO
NUOVO
30 nov 2026
<2,5%
$20 Vol.
47%
2,5-3,25%
$0 Vol.
30%
3,25-4%
$0 Vol.
34%
4-5%
$0 Vol.
30%
5%+
$0 Vol.
35%
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Amcha Yisrael party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Amcha Yisrael's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Amcha Yisrael passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Amcha Yisrael contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).**Amcha Yisrael, the right-wing party launched in late August 2026 by former IDF Brigadier General Ofer Winter, remains a marginal contender in the October 27 Knesset election.** Recent polls after candidate lists closed on September 8-9 show the party receiving between roughly 2% and 4% of the vote, with several surveys placing it below or just above the 3.25% electoral threshold. A Channel 14 poll gave it 2.1%, while others from Walla/Lazar and i24NEWS projected four seats, equivalent to a narrow crossing near 3.3-3.5%.
This volatility stems from competition on the right from established lists such as Religious Zionism-Zehut and Otzma Yehudit, plus the challenges facing any new entrant in a fragmented field where smaller parties frequently fail to consolidate support. Trader pricing, with the highest probability on under 2.5% and the next tier on 4-5%, reflects the skin-in-the-game consensus that Amcha Yisrael's late entry and limited polling consistency make a sub-threshold or low-single-digit result the most probable outcome, though modest gains remain possible if right-wing turnout consolidates in its favor before election day.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Amcha Yisrael party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Amcha Yisrael's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Amcha Yisrael passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Amcha Yisrael contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Amcha Yisrael party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Amcha Yisrael's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Amcha Yisrael passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Amcha Yisrael contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
Mercato aperto: Sep 8, 2026, 4:26 PM ET
Volume
$20Data di fine
30 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 8, 2026, 4:26 PM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.bechirot.gov.il/Risolutore
0x69c47De9D...Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Amcha Yisrael party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Amcha Yisrael's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Amcha Yisrael passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Amcha Yisrael contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).**Amcha Yisrael, the right-wing party launched in late August 2026 by former IDF Brigadier General Ofer Winter, remains a marginal contender in the October 27 Knesset election.** Recent polls after candidate lists closed on September 8-9 show the party receiving between roughly 2% and 4% of the vote, with several surveys placing it below or just above the 3.25% electoral threshold. A Channel 14 poll gave it 2.1%, while others from Walla/Lazar and i24NEWS projected four seats, equivalent to a narrow crossing near 3.3-3.5%.
This volatility stems from competition on the right from established lists such as Religious Zionism-Zehut and Otzma Yehudit, plus the challenges facing any new entrant in a fragmented field where smaller parties frequently fail to consolidate support. Trader pricing, with the highest probability on under 2.5% and the next tier on 4-5%, reflects the skin-in-the-game consensus that Amcha Yisrael's late entry and limited polling consistency make a sub-threshold or low-single-digit result the most probable outcome, though modest gains remain possible if right-wing turnout consolidates in its favor before election day.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Amcha Yisrael party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Amcha Yisrael's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Amcha Yisrael passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Amcha Yisrael contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Amcha Yisrael party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Amcha Yisrael's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Amcha Yisrael passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Amcha Yisrael contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
Volume
$20Data di fine
30 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 8, 2026, 4:26 PM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.bechirot.gov.il/Risolutore
0x69c47De9D...**Amcha Yisrael, the right-wing party launched in late August 2026 by former IDF Brigadier General Ofer Winter, remains a marginal contender in the October 27 Knesset election.** Recent polls after candidate lists closed on September 8-9 show the party receiving between roughly 2% and 4% of the vote, with several surveys placing it below or just above the 3.25% electoral threshold. A Channel 14 poll gave it 2.1%, while others from Walla/Lazar and i24NEWS projected four seats, equivalent to a narrow crossing near 3.3-3.5%. This volatility stems from competition on the right from established lists such as Religious Zionism-Zehut and Otzma Yehudit, plus the challenges facing any new entrant in a fragmented field where smaller parties frequently fail to consolidate support. Trader pricing, with the highest probability on under 2.5% and the next tier on 4-5%, reflects the skin-in-the-game consensus that Amcha Yisrael's late entry and limited polling consistency make a sub-threshold or low-single-digit result the most probable outcome, though modest gains remain possible if right-wing turnout consolidates in its favor before election day.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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