Japan’s preliminary Q1 2026 GDP release scheduled for May 19 has anchored trader sentiment around moderate expansion, with consensus forecasts from 37 economists centering on 0.4% quarter-on-quarter growth. Resilient personal consumption, supported by gasoline tax relief and utility subsidies, alongside firmer capital spending and recovering exports, has sustained positive momentum following the prior quarter’s 1.3% annualized gain. Recent data on retail sales and industrial production reinforce this baseline, while limited spillover from Middle East tensions through March has kept downside risks contained. The narrow gap between the leading 0.3–0.5% and 0.6–0.8% buckets reflects uncertainty over final consumption and external demand readings, with any surprise revision in the official figures likely to shift probabilities sharply ahead of resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato0.3–0.5% 53.0%
0.0–0.2% 6.7%
-0.3– -0.1% 4.1%
1.2%+ 2.2%
NUOVO
NUOVO
19 mag 2026
≤-0.4%
1%
-0.3– -0.1%
4%
0.0–0.2%
7%
0.3–0.5%
53%
0.6–0.8%
42%
0.9–1.1%
31%
1.2%+
2%
0.3–0.5% 53.0%
0.0–0.2% 6.7%
-0.3– -0.1% 4.1%
1.2%+ 2.2%
NUOVO
NUOVO
19 mag 2026
≤-0.4%
$1,277 Vol.
1%
-0.3– -0.1%
$1,207 Vol.
4%
0.0–0.2%
$1,317 Vol.
7%
0.3–0.5%
$871 Vol.
53%
0.6–0.8%
$519 Vol.
42%
0.9–1.1%
$752 Vol.
31%
1.2%+
$3,335 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Year-over-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 19, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.htmlJapan’s preliminary Q1 2026 GDP release scheduled for May 19 has anchored trader sentiment around moderate expansion, with consensus forecasts from 37 economists centering on 0.4% quarter-on-quarter growth. Resilient personal consumption, supported by gasoline tax relief and utility subsidies, alongside firmer capital spending and recovering exports, has sustained positive momentum following the prior quarter’s 1.3% annualized gain. Recent data on retail sales and industrial production reinforce this baseline, while limited spillover from Middle East tensions through March has kept downside risks contained. The narrow gap between the leading 0.3–0.5% and 0.6–0.8% buckets reflects uncertainty over final consumption and external demand readings, with any surprise revision in the official figures likely to shift probabilities sharply ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Year-over-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 19, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
Mercato aperto: Feb 17, 2026, 5:48 PM ET
Volume
$9,279Data di fine
19 mag 2026Mercato aperto
Feb 17, 2026, 5:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Year-over-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 19, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.htmlJapan’s preliminary Q1 2026 GDP release scheduled for May 19 has anchored trader sentiment around moderate expansion, with consensus forecasts from 37 economists centering on 0.4% quarter-on-quarter growth. Resilient personal consumption, supported by gasoline tax relief and utility subsidies, alongside firmer capital spending and recovering exports, has sustained positive momentum following the prior quarter’s 1.3% annualized gain. Recent data on retail sales and industrial production reinforce this baseline, while limited spillover from Middle East tensions through March has kept downside risks contained. The narrow gap between the leading 0.3–0.5% and 0.6–0.8% buckets reflects uncertainty over final consumption and external demand readings, with any surprise revision in the official figures likely to shift probabilities sharply ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Year-over-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 19, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
Volume
$9,279Data di fine
19 mag 2026Mercato aperto
Feb 17, 2026, 5:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Japan’s preliminary Q1 2026 GDP release scheduled for May 19 has anchored trader sentiment around moderate expansion, with consensus forecasts from 37 economists centering on 0.4% quarter-on-quarter growth. Resilient personal consumption, supported by gasoline tax relief and utility subsidies, alongside firmer capital spending and recovering exports, has sustained positive momentum following the prior quarter’s 1.3% annualized gain. Recent data on retail sales and industrial production reinforce this baseline, while limited spillover from Middle East tensions through March has kept downside risks contained. The narrow gap between the leading 0.3–0.5% and 0.6–0.8% buckets reflects uncertainty over final consumption and external demand readings, with any surprise revision in the official figures likely to shift probabilities sharply ahead of resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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