Trader consensus prices fewer than five posts by Ayatollah Khamenei's official X account (@khamenei_ir) at virtually 100% probability for May 8–15, 2026, reflecting zero activity in the period through May 14 amid the account's sharp decline following his martyrdom in a US-Israeli airstrike in late February 2026. The bio now describes him as the "martyred Leader," with posts limited to sporadic reposts of archival statements—latest on May 4–5 quoting past remarks on US weakness and Zionist normalization—averaging under one weekly as successor Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei uses a separate account for new messaging. This established low-volume pattern during institutional transition drives the lopsided odds, with resolution at May 15, 12:00 PM ET; a pre-deadline flurry of historical reposts remains the sole realistic challenge, though mourning protocols make it improbable.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoKhamenei # posts May 8 - May 15, 2026?
Khamenei # posts May 8 - May 15, 2026?
<5 100.0%
5-9 <1%
10-14 <1%
15-19 <1%
$22,293 Vol.
$22,293 Vol.
15 mag 2026
<5
Yes
5-9
No
10-14
No
15-19
No
20-24
No
25-29
No
30-34
No
35-39
No
40-44
No
45-49
No
50-54
No
55-59
No
60+
No
<5 100.0%
5-9 <1%
10-14 <1%
15-19 <1%
$22,293 Vol.
$22,293 Vol.
15 mag 2026
<5
$3,321 Vol.
Yes
5-9
$2,066 Vol.
No
10-14
$3,557 Vol.
No
15-19
$6,156 Vol.
No
20-24
$1,117 Vol.
No
25-29
$412 Vol.
No
30-34
$609 Vol.
No
35-39
$670 Vol.
No
40-44
$685 Vol.
No
45-49
$1,036 Vol.
No
50-54
$1,179 Vol.
No
55-59
$793 Vol.
No
60+
$691 Vol.
No
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between May 8, 12:00 PM ET and May 15, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Trader consensus prices fewer than five posts by Ayatollah Khamenei's official X account (@khamenei_ir) at virtually 100% probability for May 8–15, 2026, reflecting zero activity in the period through May 14 amid the account's sharp decline following his martyrdom in a US-Israeli airstrike in late February 2026. The bio now describes him as the "martyred Leader," with posts limited to sporadic reposts of archival statements—latest on May 4–5 quoting past remarks on US weakness and Zionist normalization—averaging under one weekly as successor Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei uses a separate account for new messaging. This established low-volume pattern during institutional transition drives the lopsided odds, with resolution at May 15, 12:00 PM ET; a pre-deadline flurry of historical reposts remains the sole realistic challenge, though mourning protocols make it improbable.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between May 8, 12:00 PM ET and May 15, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Mercato aperto: May 5, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Volume
$22,293Data di fine
15 mag 2026Mercato aperto
May 5, 2026, 12:02 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://x.com/khamenei_irResolver
0x69c47De9D...Esito proposto: Yes
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: Yes
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between May 8, 12:00 PM ET and May 15, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Trader consensus prices fewer than five posts by Ayatollah Khamenei's official X account (@khamenei_ir) at virtually 100% probability for May 8–15, 2026, reflecting zero activity in the period through May 14 amid the account's sharp decline following his martyrdom in a US-Israeli airstrike in late February 2026. The bio now describes him as the "martyred Leader," with posts limited to sporadic reposts of archival statements—latest on May 4–5 quoting past remarks on US weakness and Zionist normalization—averaging under one weekly as successor Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei uses a separate account for new messaging. This established low-volume pattern during institutional transition drives the lopsided odds, with resolution at May 15, 12:00 PM ET; a pre-deadline flurry of historical reposts remains the sole realistic challenge, though mourning protocols make it improbable.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between May 8, 12:00 PM ET and May 15, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Volume
$22,293Data di fine
15 mag 2026Mercato aperto
May 5, 2026, 12:02 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://x.com/khamenei_irResolver
0x69c47De9D...Esito proposto: Yes
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: Yes
Trader consensus prices fewer than five posts by Ayatollah Khamenei's official X account (@khamenei_ir) at virtually 100% probability for May 8–15, 2026, reflecting zero activity in the period through May 14 amid the account's sharp decline following his martyrdom in a US-Israeli airstrike in late February 2026. The bio now describes him as the "martyred Leader," with posts limited to sporadic reposts of archival statements—latest on May 4–5 quoting past remarks on US weakness and Zionist normalization—averaging under one weekly as successor Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei uses a separate account for new messaging. This established low-volume pattern during institutional transition drives the lopsided odds, with resolution at May 15, 12:00 PM ET; a pre-deadline flurry of historical reposts remains the sole realistic challenge, though mourning protocols make it improbable.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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