Current forecasts from GFS-based models and agency analogs indicate overnight lows in Madrid on September 4 near 19–22°C, aligning with the 1991–2020 climatological average of 17.3°C while reflecting persistent high pressure and clear skies that limit radiative cooling. Model consensus shows limited spread in minimum temperatures, with some runs suggesting slightly warmer readings due to warmer advection from the south, creating genuine uncertainty around the 17–20°C threshold. Trader sentiment, reflected in closely matched implied probabilities near 44–50% for outcomes clustered around these values, incorporates this forecast range alongside historical variability where September 4 lows have reached as low as 9°C in past decades. Updated model runs and official AEMET guidance expected within 48 hours represent the key upcoming data points that could shift market-implied odds.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLa temperatura più bassa a Madrid il 4 settembre?
La temperatura più bassa a Madrid il 4 settembre?
17°C o inferiore 100%
18°C 88%
19°C 88%
20°C 88%
NUOVO
NUOVO
4 set 2026
17°C o inferiore
100%
18°C
88%
19°C
88%
20°C
88%
21°C
88%
22°C
88%
23°C
88%
24°C
88%
25°C
88%
26°C
2%
27°C o superiore
49%
17°C o inferiore 100%
18°C 88%
19°C 88%
20°C 88%
NUOVO
NUOVO
4 set 2026
17°C o inferiore
$0 Vol.
100%
18°C
$0 Vol.
88%
19°C
$0 Vol.
88%
20°C
$0 Vol.
88%
21°C
$0 Vol.
88%
22°C
$0 Vol.
88%
23°C
$0 Vol.
88%
24°C
$0 Vol.
88%
25°C
$0 Vol.
88%
26°C
$0 Vol.
2%
27°C o superiore
$0 Vol.
49%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from GFS-based models and agency analogs indicate overnight lows in Madrid on September 4 near 19–22°C, aligning with the 1991–2020 climatological average of 17.3°C while reflecting persistent high pressure and clear skies that limit radiative cooling. Model consensus shows limited spread in minimum temperatures, with some runs suggesting slightly warmer readings due to warmer advection from the south, creating genuine uncertainty around the 17–20°C threshold. Trader sentiment, reflected in closely matched implied probabilities near 44–50% for outcomes clustered around these values, incorporates this forecast range alongside historical variability where September 4 lows have reached as low as 9°C in past decades. Updated model runs and official AEMET guidance expected within 48 hours represent the key upcoming data points that could shift market-implied odds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercato aperto: Sep 2, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$0Data di fine
4 set 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 2, 2026, 12:30 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from GFS-based models and agency analogs indicate overnight lows in Madrid on September 4 near 19–22°C, aligning with the 1991–2020 climatological average of 17.3°C while reflecting persistent high pressure and clear skies that limit radiative cooling. Model consensus shows limited spread in minimum temperatures, with some runs suggesting slightly warmer readings due to warmer advection from the south, creating genuine uncertainty around the 17–20°C threshold. Trader sentiment, reflected in closely matched implied probabilities near 44–50% for outcomes clustered around these values, incorporates this forecast range alongside historical variability where September 4 lows have reached as low as 9°C in past decades. Updated model runs and official AEMET guidance expected within 48 hours represent the key upcoming data points that could shift market-implied odds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0Data di fine
4 set 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 2, 2026, 12:30 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...Current forecasts from GFS-based models and agency analogs indicate overnight lows in Madrid on September 4 near 19–22°C, aligning with the 1991–2020 climatological average of 17.3°C while reflecting persistent high pressure and clear skies that limit radiative cooling. Model consensus shows limited spread in minimum temperatures, with some runs suggesting slightly warmer readings due to warmer advection from the south, creating genuine uncertainty around the 17–20°C threshold. Trader sentiment, reflected in closely matched implied probabilities near 44–50% for outcomes clustered around these values, incorporates this forecast range alongside historical variability where September 4 lows have reached as low as 9°C in past decades. Updated model runs and official AEMET guidance expected within 48 hours represent the key upcoming data points that could shift market-implied odds.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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