Current forecast consensus from numerical models points to clear skies, light northeasterly winds, and high pressure favoring strong overnight radiative cooling, positioning Madrid’s minimum temperature near the 17.6 °C climatological average for September 2. This setup supports the market’s leading 55 % implied probability on 17 °C or below, with recent model runs showing minimal deviation from historical baselines and no incoming frontal systems or cloud cover to retain heat. Traders are weighting the narrow window between typical nocturnal cooling and any slight model spread around 18–19 °C, while noting that final verification will hinge on official AEMET or airport station readings at the day’s coldest hour.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLa temperatura più bassa a Madrid il 2 settembre?
La temperatura più bassa a Madrid il 2 settembre?
18°C 26%
19°C 26%
21°C 16%
22°C 11%
NUOVO
NUOVO
2 set 2026
17°C or below
59%
18°C
26%
19°C
26%
20°C
1%
21°C
16%
22°C
11%
23°C
2%
24°C
7%
25°C
1%
26°C
1%
27°C or higher
1%
18°C 26%
19°C 26%
21°C 16%
22°C 11%
NUOVO
NUOVO
2 set 2026
17°C or below
$51 Vol.
59%
18°C
$0 Vol.
26%
19°C
$0 Vol.
26%
20°C
$26 Vol.
1%
21°C
$5 Vol.
16%
22°C
$5 Vol.
11%
23°C
$5 Vol.
2%
24°C
$5 Vol.
7%
25°C
$15 Vol.
1%
26°C
$10 Vol.
1%
27°C or higher
$10 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast consensus from numerical models points to clear skies, light northeasterly winds, and high pressure favoring strong overnight radiative cooling, positioning Madrid’s minimum temperature near the 17.6 °C climatological average for September 2. This setup supports the market’s leading 55 % implied probability on 17 °C or below, with recent model runs showing minimal deviation from historical baselines and no incoming frontal systems or cloud cover to retain heat. Traders are weighting the narrow window between typical nocturnal cooling and any slight model spread around 18–19 °C, while noting that final verification will hinge on official AEMET or airport station readings at the day’s coldest hour.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercato aperto: Aug 31, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$132Data di fine
2 set 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 31, 2026, 12:30 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast consensus from numerical models points to clear skies, light northeasterly winds, and high pressure favoring strong overnight radiative cooling, positioning Madrid’s minimum temperature near the 17.6 °C climatological average for September 2. This setup supports the market’s leading 55 % implied probability on 17 °C or below, with recent model runs showing minimal deviation from historical baselines and no incoming frontal systems or cloud cover to retain heat. Traders are weighting the narrow window between typical nocturnal cooling and any slight model spread around 18–19 °C, while noting that final verification will hinge on official AEMET or airport station readings at the day’s coldest hour.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$132Data di fine
2 set 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 31, 2026, 12:30 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...Current forecast consensus from numerical models points to clear skies, light northeasterly winds, and high pressure favoring strong overnight radiative cooling, positioning Madrid’s minimum temperature near the 17.6 °C climatological average for September 2. This setup supports the market’s leading 55 % implied probability on 17 °C or below, with recent model runs showing minimal deviation from historical baselines and no incoming frontal systems or cloud cover to retain heat. Traders are weighting the narrow window between typical nocturnal cooling and any slight model spread around 18–19 °C, while noting that final verification will hinge on official AEMET or airport station readings at the day’s coldest hour.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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