Recent forecasts from AEMET and ensemble models indicate a building heatwave over central Spain, with Madrid's maximum temperature on September 4 expected near 38°C under clear skies, light southerly flow, and strong daytime insolation. This setup favors peak readings in the upper 30s Celsius, consistent with the market's heavy weighting toward 39°C (55%) and 40°C (27%). Key drivers include persistent high pressure suppressing cloud cover, low humidity enabling efficient surface heating, and Madrid's urban heat island amplifying afternoon maxima. Official guidance clusters around 37–38°C while some GFS and regional runs allow brief excursions to 39–40°C if winds remain calm and boundary-layer mixing is limited. Traders appear to price in this uncertainty and recent warming trends, with resolution hinging on the final observed high from official stations.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLa temperatura più alta di Madrid il 4 settembre?
La temperatura più alta di Madrid il 4 settembre?
39°C 55%
40°C 28%
38°C 14%
37°C 3%
NUOVO
NUOVO
4 set 2026
33°C o inferiore
1%
34°C
<1%
35°C
1%
36°C
1%
37°C
3%
38°C
14%
39°C
55%
40°C
28%
41°C
1%
42°C
1%
43°C o superiore
<1%
39°C 55%
40°C 28%
38°C 14%
37°C 3%
NUOVO
NUOVO
4 set 2026
33°C o inferiore
$235 Vol.
1%
34°C
$189 Vol.
<1%
35°C
$162 Vol.
1%
36°C
$83 Vol.
1%
37°C
$141 Vol.
3%
38°C
$577 Vol.
14%
39°C
$633 Vol.
55%
40°C
$460 Vol.
28%
41°C
$70 Vol.
1%
42°C
$75 Vol.
1%
43°C o superiore
$125 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from AEMET and ensemble models indicate a building heatwave over central Spain, with Madrid's maximum temperature on September 4 expected near 38°C under clear skies, light southerly flow, and strong daytime insolation. This setup favors peak readings in the upper 30s Celsius, consistent with the market's heavy weighting toward 39°C (55%) and 40°C (27%). Key drivers include persistent high pressure suppressing cloud cover, low humidity enabling efficient surface heating, and Madrid's urban heat island amplifying afternoon maxima. Official guidance clusters around 37–38°C while some GFS and regional runs allow brief excursions to 39–40°C if winds remain calm and boundary-layer mixing is limited. Traders appear to price in this uncertainty and recent warming trends, with resolution hinging on the final observed high from official stations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercato aperto: Sep 2, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$2,748Data di fine
4 set 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 2, 2026, 12:57 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from AEMET and ensemble models indicate a building heatwave over central Spain, with Madrid's maximum temperature on September 4 expected near 38°C under clear skies, light southerly flow, and strong daytime insolation. This setup favors peak readings in the upper 30s Celsius, consistent with the market's heavy weighting toward 39°C (55%) and 40°C (27%). Key drivers include persistent high pressure suppressing cloud cover, low humidity enabling efficient surface heating, and Madrid's urban heat island amplifying afternoon maxima. Official guidance clusters around 37–38°C while some GFS and regional runs allow brief excursions to 39–40°C if winds remain calm and boundary-layer mixing is limited. Traders appear to price in this uncertainty and recent warming trends, with resolution hinging on the final observed high from official stations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,748Data di fine
4 set 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 2, 2026, 12:57 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from AEMET and ensemble models indicate a building heatwave over central Spain, with Madrid's maximum temperature on September 4 expected near 38°C under clear skies, light southerly flow, and strong daytime insolation. This setup favors peak readings in the upper 30s Celsius, consistent with the market's heavy weighting toward 39°C (55%) and 40°C (27%). Key drivers include persistent high pressure suppressing cloud cover, low humidity enabling efficient surface heating, and Madrid's urban heat island amplifying afternoon maxima. Official guidance clusters around 37–38°C while some GFS and regional runs allow brief excursions to 39–40°C if winds remain calm and boundary-layer mixing is limited. Traders appear to price in this uncertainty and recent warming trends, with resolution hinging on the final observed high from official stations.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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