**Consensus forecasts from the National Weather Service and other models point to a San Francisco overnight low in the mid-to-upper 50s°F on September 4, 2026.** A frontal system clearing after September 3 rain allows for partly to mostly clear skies, enabling moderate radiational cooling under light-to-moderate westerly winds typical of the marine layer. Historical averages near 56°F and recent analogs support this range, with trader-implied odds clustering on 54–59°F bins reflecting model consensus around 55–58°F. Differentiation among close outcomes hinges on exact wind speeds and marine-layer depth: calmer conditions favor the lower end (54–55°F) via enhanced surface cooling, while persistent onshore flow or residual clouds limits drops to 58–59°F or higher. Updated model runs and official observations near resolution will refine these probabilities.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLa temperatura più bassa a San Francisco il 4 settembre?
La temperatura più bassa a San Francisco il 4 settembre?
66°F o superiore 60%
47°F o inferiore 44%
54-55°F 32%
52-53°F 24%
NUOVO
NUOVO
4 set 2026
47°F o inferiore
44%
48-49°F
7%
50-51°F
3%
52-53°F
24%
54-55°F
32%
56-57°F
27%
58-59°F
32%
60-61°F
12%
62-63°F
25%
64-65°F
6%
66°F o superiore
60%
66°F o superiore 60%
47°F o inferiore 44%
54-55°F 32%
52-53°F 24%
NUOVO
NUOVO
4 set 2026
47°F o inferiore
$122 Vol.
44%
48-49°F
$12 Vol.
7%
50-51°F
$0 Vol.
3%
52-53°F
$0 Vol.
24%
54-55°F
$0 Vol.
32%
56-57°F
$108 Vol.
27%
58-59°F
$39 Vol.
32%
60-61°F
$0 Vol.
12%
62-63°F
$15 Vol.
25%
64-65°F
$12 Vol.
6%
66°F o superiore
$62 Vol.
60%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Consensus forecasts from the National Weather Service and other models point to a San Francisco overnight low in the mid-to-upper 50s°F on September 4, 2026.** A frontal system clearing after September 3 rain allows for partly to mostly clear skies, enabling moderate radiational cooling under light-to-moderate westerly winds typical of the marine layer. Historical averages near 56°F and recent analogs support this range, with trader-implied odds clustering on 54–59°F bins reflecting model consensus around 55–58°F. Differentiation among close outcomes hinges on exact wind speeds and marine-layer depth: calmer conditions favor the lower end (54–55°F) via enhanced surface cooling, while persistent onshore flow or residual clouds limits drops to 58–59°F or higher. Updated model runs and official observations near resolution will refine these probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercato aperto: Sep 2, 2026, 7:29 AM ET
Volume
$371Data di fine
4 set 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 2, 2026, 7:29 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Consensus forecasts from the National Weather Service and other models point to a San Francisco overnight low in the mid-to-upper 50s°F on September 4, 2026.** A frontal system clearing after September 3 rain allows for partly to mostly clear skies, enabling moderate radiational cooling under light-to-moderate westerly winds typical of the marine layer. Historical averages near 56°F and recent analogs support this range, with trader-implied odds clustering on 54–59°F bins reflecting model consensus around 55–58°F. Differentiation among close outcomes hinges on exact wind speeds and marine-layer depth: calmer conditions favor the lower end (54–55°F) via enhanced surface cooling, while persistent onshore flow or residual clouds limits drops to 58–59°F or higher. Updated model runs and official observations near resolution will refine these probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$371Data di fine
4 set 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 2, 2026, 7:29 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...**Consensus forecasts from the National Weather Service and other models point to a San Francisco overnight low in the mid-to-upper 50s°F on September 4, 2026.** A frontal system clearing after September 3 rain allows for partly to mostly clear skies, enabling moderate radiational cooling under light-to-moderate westerly winds typical of the marine layer. Historical averages near 56°F and recent analogs support this range, with trader-implied odds clustering on 54–59°F bins reflecting model consensus around 55–58°F. Differentiation among close outcomes hinges on exact wind speeds and marine-layer depth: calmer conditions favor the lower end (54–55°F) via enhanced surface cooling, while persistent onshore flow or residual clouds limits drops to 58–59°F or higher. Updated model runs and official observations near resolution will refine these probabilities.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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