Recent National Weather Service and model guidance for New York City point to overnight lows in the low-to-mid 70s on August 12, reflecting typical late-summer humidity and weak radiative cooling that limit temperature drops. These conditions produce the market’s strongest consensus around 74–75 °F, with secondary support for 72–73 °F, while probabilities decay sharply below 70 °F or above 78 °F. Seasonal baselines show average August lows near 70 °F at Central Park and LaGuardia, so the current outlook sits slightly above normal amid a broader warmer-than-average pattern projected for the month. Updated model runs and any last-minute adjustments to steering flow or cloud cover before dawn on the 12th remain the key variables that could shift implied probabilities ahead of official verification.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLa temperatura più bassa di New York il 12 agosto?
La temperatura più bassa di New York il 12 agosto?
74-75°F 41%
72-73°F 24%
76-77°F 16%
70-71°F 9%
NUOVO
NUOVO
12 ago 2026
63°F o inferiore
<1%
64-65°F
1%
66-67°F
1%
68-69°F
2%
70-71°F
9%
72-73°F
24%
74-75°F
41%
76-77°F
16%
78-79°F
7%
80-81°F
1%
82°F o superiore
1%
74-75°F 41%
72-73°F 24%
76-77°F 16%
70-71°F 9%
NUOVO
NUOVO
12 ago 2026
63°F o inferiore
$24 Vol.
<1%
64-65°F
$22 Vol.
1%
66-67°F
$38 Vol.
1%
68-69°F
$58 Vol.
2%
70-71°F
$0 Vol.
9%
72-73°F
$304 Vol.
24%
74-75°F
$483 Vol.
41%
76-77°F
$14 Vol.
16%
78-79°F
$60 Vol.
7%
80-81°F
$227 Vol.
1%
82°F o superiore
$72 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and model guidance for New York City point to overnight lows in the low-to-mid 70s on August 12, reflecting typical late-summer humidity and weak radiative cooling that limit temperature drops. These conditions produce the market’s strongest consensus around 74–75 °F, with secondary support for 72–73 °F, while probabilities decay sharply below 70 °F or above 78 °F. Seasonal baselines show average August lows near 70 °F at Central Park and LaGuardia, so the current outlook sits slightly above normal amid a broader warmer-than-average pattern projected for the month. Updated model runs and any last-minute adjustments to steering flow or cloud cover before dawn on the 12th remain the key variables that could shift implied probabilities ahead of official verification.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercato aperto: Aug 10, 2026, 9:30 PM ET
Volume
$1,302Data di fine
12 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 10, 2026, 9:30 PM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and model guidance for New York City point to overnight lows in the low-to-mid 70s on August 12, reflecting typical late-summer humidity and weak radiative cooling that limit temperature drops. These conditions produce the market’s strongest consensus around 74–75 °F, with secondary support for 72–73 °F, while probabilities decay sharply below 70 °F or above 78 °F. Seasonal baselines show average August lows near 70 °F at Central Park and LaGuardia, so the current outlook sits slightly above normal amid a broader warmer-than-average pattern projected for the month. Updated model runs and any last-minute adjustments to steering flow or cloud cover before dawn on the 12th remain the key variables that could shift implied probabilities ahead of official verification.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,302Data di fine
12 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 10, 2026, 9:30 PM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service and model guidance for New York City point to overnight lows in the low-to-mid 70s on August 12, reflecting typical late-summer humidity and weak radiative cooling that limit temperature drops. These conditions produce the market’s strongest consensus around 74–75 °F, with secondary support for 72–73 °F, while probabilities decay sharply below 70 °F or above 78 °F. Seasonal baselines show average August lows near 70 °F at Central Park and LaGuardia, so the current outlook sits slightly above normal amid a broader warmer-than-average pattern projected for the month. Updated model runs and any last-minute adjustments to steering flow or cloud cover before dawn on the 12th remain the key variables that could shift implied probabilities ahead of official verification.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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