Recent ECMWF ensemble and Météo-France high-resolution runs place the Paris minimum temperature for August 12 most likely between 17–19 °C under a weakening high-pressure regime, moderate westerly flow, and variable cloud cover that limits overnight radiative cooling. These model outputs align directly with the market’s tight clustering around 18 °C and 19 °C. Typical August climatology near 15–16 °C at the official Montsouris station is offset upward by the urban heat-island effect and current boundary-layer moisture, while small uncertainties in exact frontal timing and cloud persistence keep the two leading outcomes within a few percentage points of each other. Updated model guidance expected overnight will determine whether the distribution shifts.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLa temperatura più bassa a Parigi il 12 agosto?
La temperatura più bassa a Parigi il 12 agosto?
19°C 43%
18°C 40%
17°C 8%
20°C 7%
NUOVO
NUOVO
12 ago 2026
14°C or below
<1%
15°C
1%
16°C
5%
17°C
8%
18°C
40%
19°C
43%
20°C
7%
21°C
3%
22°C
1%
23°C
1%
24°C or higher
<1%
19°C 43%
18°C 40%
17°C 8%
20°C 7%
NUOVO
NUOVO
12 ago 2026
14°C or below
$51 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$157 Vol.
1%
16°C
$75 Vol.
5%
17°C
$290 Vol.
8%
18°C
$86 Vol.
40%
19°C
$459 Vol.
43%
20°C
$29 Vol.
7%
21°C
$54 Vol.
3%
22°C
$25 Vol.
1%
23°C
$38 Vol.
1%
24°C or higher
$39 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ECMWF ensemble and Météo-France high-resolution runs place the Paris minimum temperature for August 12 most likely between 17–19 °C under a weakening high-pressure regime, moderate westerly flow, and variable cloud cover that limits overnight radiative cooling. These model outputs align directly with the market’s tight clustering around 18 °C and 19 °C. Typical August climatology near 15–16 °C at the official Montsouris station is offset upward by the urban heat-island effect and current boundary-layer moisture, while small uncertainties in exact frontal timing and cloud persistence keep the two leading outcomes within a few percentage points of each other. Updated model guidance expected overnight will determine whether the distribution shifts.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercato aperto: Aug 10, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$1,305Data di fine
12 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 10, 2026, 12:30 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPBResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ECMWF ensemble and Météo-France high-resolution runs place the Paris minimum temperature for August 12 most likely between 17–19 °C under a weakening high-pressure regime, moderate westerly flow, and variable cloud cover that limits overnight radiative cooling. These model outputs align directly with the market’s tight clustering around 18 °C and 19 °C. Typical August climatology near 15–16 °C at the official Montsouris station is offset upward by the urban heat-island effect and current boundary-layer moisture, while small uncertainties in exact frontal timing and cloud persistence keep the two leading outcomes within a few percentage points of each other. Updated model guidance expected overnight will determine whether the distribution shifts.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,305Data di fine
12 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 10, 2026, 12:30 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPBResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent ECMWF ensemble and Météo-France high-resolution runs place the Paris minimum temperature for August 12 most likely between 17–19 °C under a weakening high-pressure regime, moderate westerly flow, and variable cloud cover that limits overnight radiative cooling. These model outputs align directly with the market’s tight clustering around 18 °C and 19 °C. Typical August climatology near 15–16 °C at the official Montsouris station is offset upward by the urban heat-island effect and current boundary-layer moisture, while small uncertainties in exact frontal timing and cloud persistence keep the two leading outcomes within a few percentage points of each other. Updated model guidance expected overnight will determine whether the distribution shifts.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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