Recent forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory and regional models point to above-normal nighttime temperatures for August 12, 2026, supporting the strong trader consensus around a 30°C low. Persistent subtropical high pressure, elevated sea surface temperatures, and seasonal warming trends under ENSO-neutral to positive conditions have limited overnight radiative cooling and kept humidity high, reducing the chance of drops below 29°C. Historical August climatology shows typical lows near 26–28°C, but current model runs and the HKO’s August–October outlook for normal-to-above-normal readings have shifted implied probabilities sharply higher for warmer thresholds. No significant monsoon surge or typhoon influence is expected in the next 24–48 hours to alter this pattern.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLa temperatura più bassa di Hong Kong il 12 agosto?
La temperatura più bassa di Hong Kong il 12 agosto?
29°C 14%
28°C 3%
26°C 1.3%
27°C 1.2%
$61,366 Vol.
$61,366 Vol.
12 ago 2026
24°C o inferiore
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
1%
27°C
1%
28°C
3%
29°C
14%
30°C
58%
31°C
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C
<1%
34°C o superiore
<1%
29°C 14%
28°C 3%
26°C 1.3%
27°C 1.2%
$61,366 Vol.
$61,366 Vol.
12 ago 2026
24°C o inferiore
$1,720 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$3,309 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$5,420 Vol.
1%
27°C
$7,108 Vol.
1%
28°C
$12,347 Vol.
3%
29°C
$12,414 Vol.
14%
30°C
$12,951 Vol.
58%
31°C
$4,153 Vol.
<1%
32°C
$652 Vol.
<1%
33°C
$612 Vol.
<1%
34°C o superiore
$682 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory and regional models point to above-normal nighttime temperatures for August 12, 2026, supporting the strong trader consensus around a 30°C low. Persistent subtropical high pressure, elevated sea surface temperatures, and seasonal warming trends under ENSO-neutral to positive conditions have limited overnight radiative cooling and kept humidity high, reducing the chance of drops below 29°C. Historical August climatology shows typical lows near 26–28°C, but current model runs and the HKO’s August–October outlook for normal-to-above-normal readings have shifted implied probabilities sharply higher for warmer thresholds. No significant monsoon surge or typhoon influence is expected in the next 24–48 hours to alter this pattern.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercato aperto: Aug 10, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$61,366Data di fine
12 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 10, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory and regional models point to above-normal nighttime temperatures for August 12, 2026, supporting the strong trader consensus around a 30°C low. Persistent subtropical high pressure, elevated sea surface temperatures, and seasonal warming trends under ENSO-neutral to positive conditions have limited overnight radiative cooling and kept humidity high, reducing the chance of drops below 29°C. Historical August climatology shows typical lows near 26–28°C, but current model runs and the HKO’s August–October outlook for normal-to-above-normal readings have shifted implied probabilities sharply higher for warmer thresholds. No significant monsoon surge or typhoon influence is expected in the next 24–48 hours to alter this pattern.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$61,366Data di fine
12 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 10, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory and regional models point to above-normal nighttime temperatures for August 12, 2026, supporting the strong trader consensus around a 30°C low. Persistent subtropical high pressure, elevated sea surface temperatures, and seasonal warming trends under ENSO-neutral to positive conditions have limited overnight radiative cooling and kept humidity high, reducing the chance of drops below 29°C. Historical August climatology shows typical lows near 26–28°C, but current model runs and the HKO’s August–October outlook for normal-to-above-normal readings have shifted implied probabilities sharply higher for warmer thresholds. No significant monsoon surge or typhoon influence is expected in the next 24–48 hours to alter this pattern.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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