Close trader consensus around 14–15°C for Wellington’s August 12 maximum reflects short-range forecast uncertainty two days out, with numerical models showing a narrow spread between mild northerly flow and cooler southerly or easterly regimes. Wellington’s exposed coastal location and frequent strong winds amplify sensitivity to wind direction and cloud cover, which can shift daily maxima by 1–2°C through advection and reduced insolation. Historical August averages near 13°C provide context, yet recent guidance indicates potential for brief warming under weakening high pressure before any frontal passage. Resolution hinges on the precise timing of any wind shift or marine-layer influence, factors that keep 14°C and 15°C nearly tied in market-implied odds.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLa temperatura più alta a Wellington il 12 agosto?
La temperatura più alta a Wellington il 12 agosto?
14°C 48%
15°C 45%
13°C 6%
16°C 5%
NUOVO
NUOVO
12 ago 2026
9°C o meno
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
1%
12°C
3%
13°C
6%
14°C
48%
15°C
45%
16°C
5%
17°C
2%
18°C
1%
19°C o superiore
<1%
14°C 48%
15°C 45%
13°C 6%
16°C 5%
NUOVO
NUOVO
12 ago 2026
9°C o meno
$12 Vol.
<1%
10°C
$22 Vol.
<1%
11°C
$12 Vol.
1%
12°C
$12 Vol.
3%
13°C
$42 Vol.
6%
14°C
$124 Vol.
48%
15°C
$222 Vol.
45%
16°C
$13 Vol.
5%
17°C
$22 Vol.
2%
18°C
$22 Vol.
1%
19°C o superiore
$22 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Close trader consensus around 14–15°C for Wellington’s August 12 maximum reflects short-range forecast uncertainty two days out, with numerical models showing a narrow spread between mild northerly flow and cooler southerly or easterly regimes. Wellington’s exposed coastal location and frequent strong winds amplify sensitivity to wind direction and cloud cover, which can shift daily maxima by 1–2°C through advection and reduced insolation. Historical August averages near 13°C provide context, yet recent guidance indicates potential for brief warming under weakening high pressure before any frontal passage. Resolution hinges on the precise timing of any wind shift or marine-layer influence, factors that keep 14°C and 15°C nearly tied in market-implied odds.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercato aperto: Aug 10, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Volume
$525Data di fine
12 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 10, 2026, 12:04 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Close trader consensus around 14–15°C for Wellington’s August 12 maximum reflects short-range forecast uncertainty two days out, with numerical models showing a narrow spread between mild northerly flow and cooler southerly or easterly regimes. Wellington’s exposed coastal location and frequent strong winds amplify sensitivity to wind direction and cloud cover, which can shift daily maxima by 1–2°C through advection and reduced insolation. Historical August averages near 13°C provide context, yet recent guidance indicates potential for brief warming under weakening high pressure before any frontal passage. Resolution hinges on the precise timing of any wind shift or marine-layer influence, factors that keep 14°C and 15°C nearly tied in market-implied odds.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$525Data di fine
12 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 10, 2026, 12:04 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Close trader consensus around 14–15°C for Wellington’s August 12 maximum reflects short-range forecast uncertainty two days out, with numerical models showing a narrow spread between mild northerly flow and cooler southerly or easterly regimes. Wellington’s exposed coastal location and frequent strong winds amplify sensitivity to wind direction and cloud cover, which can shift daily maxima by 1–2°C through advection and reduced insolation. Historical August averages near 13°C provide context, yet recent guidance indicates potential for brief warming under weakening high pressure before any frontal passage. Resolution hinges on the precise timing of any wind shift or marine-layer influence, factors that keep 14°C and 15°C nearly tied in market-implied odds.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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