Recent hotter-than-expected April CPI data, which printed at 3.8% year-over-year versus 3.7% forecasts amid a sharp energy spike from geopolitical tensions, has shaped trader positioning for the May annual inflation release. Market-implied odds cluster tightly around 4.3% and 4.4% as the leading outcomes, reflecting uncertainty over whether the April gasoline surge will produce second-round effects in core services or whether moderating shelter costs and used-vehicle deflation will contain the print. Key swing factors include the trajectory of Brent crude and any revisions to prior months' figures, with traders weighing these against the Federal Reserve's latest policy signals and upcoming labor-market releases that could alter rate-path expectations.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato4.3% 36%
≥4,4% 34%
4.2% 25%
4.1% 9%
$13,528 Vol.
$13,528 Vol.
10 giu 2026
≤3,3%
<1%
3.4%
<1%
3.5%
1%
3.6%
<1%
3.7%
1%
3.8%
<1%
3.9%
1%
4.0%
1%
4.1%
9%
4.2%
25%
4.3%
36%
≥4,4%
34%
4.3% 36%
≥4,4% 34%
4.2% 25%
4.1% 9%
$13,528 Vol.
$13,528 Vol.
10 giu 2026
≤3,3%
$415 Vol.
<1%
3.4%
$261 Vol.
<1%
3.5%
$656 Vol.
1%
3.6%
$432 Vol.
<1%
3.7%
$386 Vol.
1%
3.8%
$380 Vol.
<1%
3.9%
$404 Vol.
1%
4.0%
$499 Vol.
1%
4.1%
$1,573 Vol.
9%
4.2%
$3,387 Vol.
25%
4.3%
$2,278 Vol.
36%
≥4,4%
$2,865 Vol.
34%
This is a market about inflation over the 12-month period ending May 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in May 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for May 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on June 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Recent hotter-than-expected April CPI data, which printed at 3.8% year-over-year versus 3.7% forecasts amid a sharp energy spike from geopolitical tensions, has shaped trader positioning for the May annual inflation release. Market-implied odds cluster tightly around 4.3% and 4.4% as the leading outcomes, reflecting uncertainty over whether the April gasoline surge will produce second-round effects in core services or whether moderating shelter costs and used-vehicle deflation will contain the print. Key swing factors include the trajectory of Brent crude and any revisions to prior months' figures, with traders weighing these against the Federal Reserve's latest policy signals and upcoming labor-market releases that could alter rate-path expectations.
This is a market about inflation over the 12-month period ending May 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in May 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for May 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on June 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in May 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for May 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on June 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Mercato aperto: May 12, 2026, 3:41 PM ET
Volume
$13,528Data di fine
10 giu 2026Mercato aperto
May 12, 2026, 3:41 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This is a market about inflation over the 12-month period ending May 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in May 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for May 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on June 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Recent hotter-than-expected April CPI data, which printed at 3.8% year-over-year versus 3.7% forecasts amid a sharp energy spike from geopolitical tensions, has shaped trader positioning for the May annual inflation release. Market-implied odds cluster tightly around 4.3% and 4.4% as the leading outcomes, reflecting uncertainty over whether the April gasoline surge will produce second-round effects in core services or whether moderating shelter costs and used-vehicle deflation will contain the print. Key swing factors include the trajectory of Brent crude and any revisions to prior months' figures, with traders weighing these against the Federal Reserve's latest policy signals and upcoming labor-market releases that could alter rate-path expectations.
This is a market about inflation over the 12-month period ending May 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in May 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for May 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on June 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in May 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for May 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on June 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Volume
$13,528Data di fine
10 giu 2026Mercato aperto
May 12, 2026, 3:41 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent hotter-than-expected April CPI data, which printed at 3.8% year-over-year versus 3.7% forecasts amid a sharp energy spike from geopolitical tensions, has shaped trader positioning for the May annual inflation release. Market-implied odds cluster tightly around 4.3% and 4.4% as the leading outcomes, reflecting uncertainty over whether the April gasoline surge will produce second-round effects in core services or whether moderating shelter costs and used-vehicle deflation will contain the print. Key swing factors include the trajectory of Brent crude and any revisions to prior months' figures, with traders weighing these against the Federal Reserve's latest policy signals and upcoming labor-market releases that could alter rate-path expectations.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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