Recent Q2 2026 GDP expansion of 1.5% quarter-over-quarter, rebounding from a 0.6% contraction, anchors trader expectations for moderate Q3 growth amid mixed high-frequency indicators. Persistent USMCA review uncertainty beyond the July deadline weighs on private investment and business confidence, while weak domestic demand and gradual labor market softening limit upside. Banxico’s steady 6.5% policy rate and easing inflation trajectory support a baseline around 1.0-2.0%, with nearshoring-related exports providing partial offset. Market-implied odds reflect closely contested outcomes between 1.0-2.5%, as Q3 data releases and any early USMCA signals could shift the distribution before resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato1.5-2.0% 34%
1.0-1.5% 29%
2.0-2.5% 25%
2.5-3.0% 13%
$12,342 Vol.
$12,342 Vol.
30 ott 2026
<0.5%
2%
0.5-1.0%
5%
1.0-1.5%
29%
1.5-2.0%
34%
2.0-2.5%
25%
2.5-3.0%
13%
3.0-3.5%
4%
3.5%+
<1%
1.5-2.0% 34%
1.0-1.5% 29%
2.0-2.5% 25%
2.5-3.0% 13%
$12,342 Vol.
$12,342 Vol.
30 ott 2026
<0.5%
$256 Vol.
2%
0.5-1.0%
$193 Vol.
5%
1.0-1.5%
$2,231 Vol.
29%
1.5-2.0%
$2,335 Vol.
34%
2.0-2.5%
$6,513 Vol.
25%
2.5-3.0%
$364 Vol.
13%
3.0-3.5%
$248 Vol.
4%
3.5%+
$203 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on October 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent Q2 2026 GDP expansion of 1.5% quarter-over-quarter, rebounding from a 0.6% contraction, anchors trader expectations for moderate Q3 growth amid mixed high-frequency indicators. Persistent USMCA review uncertainty beyond the July deadline weighs on private investment and business confidence, while weak domestic demand and gradual labor market softening limit upside. Banxico’s steady 6.5% policy rate and easing inflation trajectory support a baseline around 1.0-2.0%, with nearshoring-related exports providing partial offset. Market-implied odds reflect closely contested outcomes between 1.0-2.5%, as Q3 data releases and any early USMCA signals could shift the distribution before resolution.
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on October 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercato aperto: Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
Volume
$12,342Data di fine
30 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on October 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent Q2 2026 GDP expansion of 1.5% quarter-over-quarter, rebounding from a 0.6% contraction, anchors trader expectations for moderate Q3 growth amid mixed high-frequency indicators. Persistent USMCA review uncertainty beyond the July deadline weighs on private investment and business confidence, while weak domestic demand and gradual labor market softening limit upside. Banxico’s steady 6.5% policy rate and easing inflation trajectory support a baseline around 1.0-2.0%, with nearshoring-related exports providing partial offset. Market-implied odds reflect closely contested outcomes between 1.0-2.5%, as Q3 data releases and any early USMCA signals could shift the distribution before resolution.
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on October 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$12,342Data di fine
30 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Q2 2026 GDP expansion of 1.5% quarter-over-quarter, rebounding from a 0.6% contraction, anchors trader expectations for moderate Q3 growth amid mixed high-frequency indicators. Persistent USMCA review uncertainty beyond the July deadline weighs on private investment and business confidence, while weak domestic demand and gradual labor market softening limit upside. Banxico’s steady 6.5% policy rate and easing inflation trajectory support a baseline around 1.0-2.0%, with nearshoring-related exports providing partial offset. Market-implied odds reflect closely contested outcomes between 1.0-2.5%, as Q3 data releases and any early USMCA signals could shift the distribution before resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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