Lebanon’s closely balanced odds reflect Prime Minister Nawaf Salam’s diplomatic efforts amid a fragile ceasefire with Israel that continues to face violations along the Blue Line. Salam has pursued direct talks for full Israeli withdrawal, met Syrian officials to strengthen border controls, and sought international support for reconstruction and state monopoly on arms, bolstered by backing from President Joseph Aoun. These steps are offset by entrenched sectarian power-sharing tensions, Hezbollah’s political and military influence, and unresolved economic reforms ahead of scheduled parliamentary elections. A breakdown in the truce or parliamentary no-confidence vote could prompt resignation, while sustained progress in negotiations or reform implementation might extend his tenure through 2026.