John Swinney’s commanding lead in the market reflects his status as the incumbent First Minister and SNP leader, with the party positioned to secure the largest number of seats in the May 2026 Scottish Parliament election. Recent polling averages showed the SNP maintaining a substantial advantage over Labour and other parties, supporting expectations that Swinney will again be nominated and confirmed by MSPs. His continuity stems from stable internal party backing and the absence of any active leadership contest or snap parliamentary vote. Alternative outcomes remain possible only in narrow scenarios such as an unexpected SNP shortfall in seat totals that blocks a workable nomination or a sudden resignation before formal appointment.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoJohn Swinney 99.6%
Alex Cole-Hamilton <1%
Malcolm Offord <1%
Russell Findlay <1%
$11,059 Vol.
$11,059 Vol.
7 mag 2026
John Swinney
100%
Alex Cole-Hamilton
1%
Malcolm Offord
1%
Russell Findlay
1%
Anas Sarwar
<1%
Ross Greer
<1%
Gillian Mackay
<1%
John Swinney 99.6%
Alex Cole-Hamilton <1%
Malcolm Offord <1%
Russell Findlay <1%
$11,059 Vol.
$11,059 Vol.
7 mag 2026
John Swinney
$3,218 Vol.
100%
Alex Cole-Hamilton
$1,346 Vol.
1%
Malcolm Offord
$912 Vol.
1%
Russell Findlay
$2,554 Vol.
1%
Anas Sarwar
$1,944 Vol.
<1%
Ross Greer
$515 Vol.
<1%
Gillian Mackay
$570 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Scotland on May 7, 2026.
This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as First Minister of Scotland following the 2026 Scottish parliamentary elections.
To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed as First Minister following the 2026 Scottish parliamentary elections. Any interim or caretaker head of government will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such First Minister is appointed by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Scotland; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.John Swinney’s commanding lead in the market reflects his status as the incumbent First Minister and SNP leader, with the party positioned to secure the largest number of seats in the May 2026 Scottish Parliament election. Recent polling averages showed the SNP maintaining a substantial advantage over Labour and other parties, supporting expectations that Swinney will again be nominated and confirmed by MSPs. His continuity stems from stable internal party backing and the absence of any active leadership contest or snap parliamentary vote. Alternative outcomes remain possible only in narrow scenarios such as an unexpected SNP shortfall in seat totals that blocks a workable nomination or a sudden resignation before formal appointment.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Scotland on May 7, 2026.
This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as First Minister of Scotland following the 2026 Scottish parliamentary elections.
To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed as First Minister following the 2026 Scottish parliamentary elections. Any interim or caretaker head of government will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such First Minister is appointed by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Scotland; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as First Minister of Scotland following the 2026 Scottish parliamentary elections.
To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed as First Minister following the 2026 Scottish parliamentary elections. Any interim or caretaker head of government will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such First Minister is appointed by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Scotland; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Apr 23, 2026, 6:19 PM ET
Volume
$11,059Data di fine
7 mag 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 23, 2026, 6:19 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Scotland on May 7, 2026.
This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as First Minister of Scotland following the 2026 Scottish parliamentary elections.
To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed as First Minister following the 2026 Scottish parliamentary elections. Any interim or caretaker head of government will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such First Minister is appointed by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Scotland; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.John Swinney’s commanding lead in the market reflects his status as the incumbent First Minister and SNP leader, with the party positioned to secure the largest number of seats in the May 2026 Scottish Parliament election. Recent polling averages showed the SNP maintaining a substantial advantage over Labour and other parties, supporting expectations that Swinney will again be nominated and confirmed by MSPs. His continuity stems from stable internal party backing and the absence of any active leadership contest or snap parliamentary vote. Alternative outcomes remain possible only in narrow scenarios such as an unexpected SNP shortfall in seat totals that blocks a workable nomination or a sudden resignation before formal appointment.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Scotland on May 7, 2026.
This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as First Minister of Scotland following the 2026 Scottish parliamentary elections.
To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed as First Minister following the 2026 Scottish parliamentary elections. Any interim or caretaker head of government will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such First Minister is appointed by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Scotland; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as First Minister of Scotland following the 2026 Scottish parliamentary elections.
To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed as First Minister following the 2026 Scottish parliamentary elections. Any interim or caretaker head of government will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such First Minister is appointed by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Scotland; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$11,059Data di fine
7 mag 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 23, 2026, 6:19 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...John Swinney’s commanding lead in the market reflects his status as the incumbent First Minister and SNP leader, with the party positioned to secure the largest number of seats in the May 2026 Scottish Parliament election. Recent polling averages showed the SNP maintaining a substantial advantage over Labour and other parties, supporting expectations that Swinney will again be nominated and confirmed by MSPs. His continuity stems from stable internal party backing and the absence of any active leadership contest or snap parliamentary vote. Alternative outcomes remain possible only in narrow scenarios such as an unexpected SNP shortfall in seat totals that blocks a workable nomination or a sudden resignation before formal appointment.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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