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Politica·Premi

Vincitore del Premio Nobel per la Pace 2026

icon for Vincitore del Premio Nobel per la Pace 2026
Politica·Premi

Vincitore del Premio Nobel per la Pace 2026

Donald Trump 10%

Yulia Navalnaya 8%

Volodymyr Zelenskyy 6.2%

UNRWA 5.1%

Polymarket

$17,677,107 Vol.

Donald Trump 10%

Yulia Navalnaya 8%

Volodymyr Zelenskyy 6.2%

UNRWA 5.1%

Polymarket

$17,677,107 Vol.

icon for Donald Trump

Donald Trump

$3,376,016 Vol.

10%

icon for Yulia Navalnaya

Yulia Navalnaya

$157,511 Vol.

8%

icon for Volodymyr Zelenskyy

Volodymyr Zelenskyy

$499,794 Vol.

6%

icon for UNRWA

UNRWA

$1,945,851 Vol.

5%

icon for Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani

Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani

$611,080 Vol.

4%

icon for Papa Leone XIV

Papa Leone XIV

$698,906 Vol.

3%

icon for Corte internazionale di giustizia

Corte internazionale di giustizia

$760,480 Vol.

2%

icon for Narendra Modi

Narendra Modi

$544,587 Vol.

2%

icon for Greta Thunberg

Greta Thunberg

$1,196,554 Vol.

1%

icon for Xi Jinping

Xi Jinping

$1,141,534 Vol.

1%

icon for Charlie Kirk

Charlie Kirk

$908,574 Vol.

1%

icon for Ahmed al-Sharaa

Ahmed al-Sharaa

$951,846 Vol.

1%

icon for António Guterres

António Guterres

$420,732 Vol.

1%

icon for Khaled Mashal

Khaled Mashal

$454,116 Vol.

1%

icon for Mohammed bin Salman

Mohammed bin Salman

$817,652 Vol.

1%

icon for Julian Assange

Julian Assange

$502,982 Vol.

1%

icon for Vladimir Putin

Vladimir Putin

$744,940 Vol.

1%

icon for Recep Tayyip Erdoğan

Recep Tayyip Erdoğan

$714,579 Vol.

<1%

icon for Elon Musk

Elon Musk

$733,077 Vol.

<1%

icon for Benjamin Netanyahu

Benjamin Netanyahu

$496,780 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market. If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other." The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.With leading contenders closely matched in the Nobel Peace Prize 2026 market, trader sentiment reflects the unpredictable timing of the Nobel Committee’s decisions amid shifting global diplomacy and humanitarian efforts. Donald Trump’s 9.5% implied probability draws from his high-profile international profile and negotiation track record, while Yulia Navalnaya’s 7.5% position builds on sustained advocacy momentum and Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s 6.2% share tracks ongoing conflict dynamics. Broader fields including UNRWA at 5.1% and other heads of state signal wide dispersion across diplomatic and peace-building narratives. Historical precedent shows the prize often rewards late-cycle breakthroughs, so fresh announcements or resolutions could swiftly reshape these closely contested odds.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee.

If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market.

If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other."

The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
Volume
$17,677,107
Data di fine
10 ott 2026
Mercato aperto
Oct 16, 2025, 6:04 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market. If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other." The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market. If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other." The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.With leading contenders closely matched in the Nobel Peace Prize 2026 market, trader sentiment reflects the unpredictable timing of the Nobel Committee’s decisions amid shifting global diplomacy and humanitarian efforts. Donald Trump’s 9.5% implied probability draws from his high-profile international profile and negotiation track record, while Yulia Navalnaya’s 7.5% position builds on sustained advocacy momentum and Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s 6.2% share tracks ongoing conflict dynamics. Broader fields including UNRWA at 5.1% and other heads of state signal wide dispersion across diplomatic and peace-building narratives. Historical precedent shows the prize often rewards late-cycle breakthroughs, so fresh announcements or resolutions could swiftly reshape these closely contested odds.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee.

If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market.

If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other."

The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
Volume
$17,677,107
Data di fine
10 ott 2026
Mercato aperto
Oct 16, 2025, 6:04 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market. If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other." The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.

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Domande frequenti

"Vincitore del Premio Nobel per la Pace 2026" è un mercato predittivo su Polymarket con 20 possibili esiti dove i trader comprano e vendono azioni in base a ciò che credono accadrà. L'esito attualmente in testa è "Donald Trump" a 10%, seguito da "Yulia Navalnaya" a 8%. I prezzi riflettono probabilità aggregate in tempo reale. Ad esempio, un'azione quotata a 10¢ implica che il mercato assegna collettivamente una probabilità di 10% a quell'esito. Queste quote cambiano continuamente man mano che i trader reagiscono a nuovi sviluppi e informazioni. Le azioni nell'esito corretto possono essere riscattate per $1 ciascuna alla risoluzione del mercato.

Ad oggi, "Vincitore del Premio Nobel per la Pace 2026" ha generato $17.7 million in volume totale di trading dal lancio del mercato il Oct 16, 2025. Questo livello di attività di trading riflette un forte coinvolgimento della comunità Polymarket e contribuisce a garantire che le quote attuali siano informate da un ampio pool di partecipanti al mercato. Puoi seguire i movimenti di prezzo in tempo reale e fare trading su qualsiasi esito direttamente su questa pagina.

Per fare trading su "Vincitore del Premio Nobel per la Pace 2026", esplora i 20 esiti disponibili elencati in questa pagina. Ogni esito mostra un prezzo corrente che rappresenta la probabilità implicita del mercato. Per prendere una posizione, seleziona l'esito che ritieni più probabile, scegli "Sì" per fare trading a suo favore o "No" per fare trading contro di esso, inserisci il tuo importo e clicca "Trading". Se il tuo esito scelto è corretto alla risoluzione del mercato, le tue azioni "Sì" pagano $1 ciascuna. Se è errato, pagano $0. Puoi anche vendere le tue azioni in qualsiasi momento prima della risoluzione se vuoi consolidare un profitto o limitare una perdita.

L'attuale favorito per "Vincitore del Premio Nobel per la Pace 2026" è "Donald Trump" a 10%, il che significa che il mercato assegna una probabilità di 10% a quell'esito. L'esito successivo più vicino è "Yulia Navalnaya" a 8%. Queste quote si aggiornano in tempo reale man mano che i trader comprano e vendono azioni, quindi riflettono l'ultima visione collettiva di ciò che è più probabile che accada. Controlla frequentemente o aggiungi questa pagina ai preferiti per seguire come cambiano le quote man mano che emergono nuove informazioni.

Le regole di risoluzione per "Vincitore del Premio Nobel per la Pace 2026" definiscono esattamente cosa deve accadere affinché ogni esito venga dichiarato vincitore — comprese le fonti di dati ufficiali utilizzate per determinare il risultato. Puoi consultare i criteri completi di risoluzione nella sezione "Regole" di questa pagina sopra i commenti. Ti consigliamo di leggere attentamente le regole prima di fare trading, poiché specificano le condizioni precise, i casi limite e le fonti che regolano come viene risolto questo mercato.