Traders assign a 98% probability that Ruben Gallego will remain in his US Senate seat through May 31, reflecting the absence of any public announcements, health disclosures, or political developments indicating an early exit. Gallego, who assumed office in January 2025 following his 2024 Arizona Senate victory, continues serving without disruption during the current legislative session. Senators in the early portion of a six-year term rarely depart absent clear signals such as cabinet nominations or personal circumstances that would trigger resignation. Any change would require an unforeseen catalyst like a sudden medical event or appointment to another federal role, neither of which has surfaced in recent weeks or months.