Tennessee’s open gubernatorial contest pits Republican nominee Marsha Blackburn against Democrat Jerri Green roughly one month before the November 3 vote. Polling averages show Blackburn ahead by single digits to low teens among likely voters, narrower than historical Republican margins in the state, while independents draw measurable support that could compress or expand the final spread. Recent surveys, including a September TargetSmart poll, have registered modest narrowing for Green, yet the underlying partisan composition and turnout patterns continue to anchor market pricing toward a double-digit Republican victory. Key variables that could shift the margin include independent vote consolidation, late-cycle turnout mobilization in suburban and rural counties, and any additional polling releases or campaign events before Election Day.