**Traders assign an 86% probability that no Turkish constitutional referendum will be officially announced by December 31, 2026, reflecting structural parliamentary barriers and the incremental pace of preparatory work.** President Erdoğan’s AKP-led coalition holds roughly 321 of 600 seats—short of the 360 needed to trigger a referendum or 400 required for direct amendment—while opposition parties, including the CHP, continue to resist. A May 2025 presidential commission of legal experts began drafting a new “civilian constitution,” with AKP panels continuing consultations into late 2025 and Parliament Speaker Numan Kurtulmuş expressing optimism in June for possible progress in 2026–2027. However, these steps have not produced the cross-party consensus, formal package, or vote margins required for an announcement. Public polling has shown majority opposition to further changes that could extend presidential eligibility. Absent rapid coalition expansion or unexpected concessions, the deliberate timeline and institutional thresholds keep a 2026 referendum announcement unlikely.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato14% probabilità
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NUOVO
31 dic 2026
14% probabilità
NUOVO
NUOVO
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a constitutional referendum in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Traders assign an 86% probability that no Turkish constitutional referendum will be officially announced by December 31, 2026, reflecting structural parliamentary barriers and the incremental pace of preparatory work.**
President Erdoğan’s AKP-led coalition holds roughly 321 of 600 seats—short of the 360 needed to trigger a referendum or 400 required for direct amendment—while opposition parties, including the CHP, continue to resist. A May 2025 presidential commission of legal experts began drafting a new “civilian constitution,” with AKP panels continuing consultations into late 2025 and Parliament Speaker Numan Kurtulmuş expressing optimism in June for possible progress in 2026–2027.
However, these steps have not produced the cross-party consensus, formal package, or vote margins required for an announcement. Public polling has shown majority opposition to further changes that could extend presidential eligibility. Absent rapid coalition expansion or unexpected concessions, the deliberate timeline and institutional thresholds keep a 2026 referendum announcement unlikely.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a constitutional referendum in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Mar 13, 2026, 12:55 PM ET
Volume
$6,734Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 13, 2026, 12:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if a constitutional referendum in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Traders assign an 86% probability that no Turkish constitutional referendum will be officially announced by December 31, 2026, reflecting structural parliamentary barriers and the incremental pace of preparatory work.**
President Erdoğan’s AKP-led coalition holds roughly 321 of 600 seats—short of the 360 needed to trigger a referendum or 400 required for direct amendment—while opposition parties, including the CHP, continue to resist. A May 2025 presidential commission of legal experts began drafting a new “civilian constitution,” with AKP panels continuing consultations into late 2025 and Parliament Speaker Numan Kurtulmuş expressing optimism in June for possible progress in 2026–2027.
However, these steps have not produced the cross-party consensus, formal package, or vote margins required for an announcement. Public polling has shown majority opposition to further changes that could extend presidential eligibility. Absent rapid coalition expansion or unexpected concessions, the deliberate timeline and institutional thresholds keep a 2026 referendum announcement unlikely.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a constitutional referendum in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$6,734Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 13, 2026, 12:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Traders assign an 86% probability that no Turkish constitutional referendum will be officially announced by December 31, 2026, reflecting structural parliamentary barriers and the incremental pace of preparatory work.** President Erdoğan’s AKP-led coalition holds roughly 321 of 600 seats—short of the 360 needed to trigger a referendum or 400 required for direct amendment—while opposition parties, including the CHP, continue to resist. A May 2025 presidential commission of legal experts began drafting a new “civilian constitution,” with AKP panels continuing consultations into late 2025 and Parliament Speaker Numan Kurtulmuş expressing optimism in June for possible progress in 2026–2027. However, these steps have not produced the cross-party consensus, formal package, or vote margins required for an announcement. Public polling has shown majority opposition to further changes that could extend presidential eligibility. Absent rapid coalition expansion or unexpected concessions, the deliberate timeline and institutional thresholds keep a 2026 referendum announcement unlikely.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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