The primary catalyst anchoring near-certain trader consensus on 0.4–0.5% UK GDP growth QoQ for Q2 2026 is the Office for National Statistics preliminary estimate released August 13, confirming exactly 0.4% expansion, in line with economist forecasts after the 0.6% Q1 print. Services and consumer spending momentum, alongside stable labor market conditions, supported the outcome and aligned market-implied odds with the realized figure. While the preliminary release carries typical revision risk in subsequent quarterly national accounts, any material shift outside the 0.4–0.5% band would require substantial data adjustments not signaled in leading monthly indicators or consensus estimates.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato0,4–0,5% 100.0%
Negativo <1%
0,0–0,1% <1%
0,2–0,3% <1%
$35,535 Vol.
$35,535 Vol.
12 ago 2026
Negativo
No
0,0–0,1%
No
0,2–0,3%
No
0,4–0,5%
Sì
0,6–0,7%
No
0,8–0,9%
No
1,0%+
No
0,4–0,5% 100.0%
Negativo <1%
0,0–0,1% <1%
0,2–0,3% <1%
$35,535 Vol.
$35,535 Vol.
12 ago 2026
Negativo
$3,943 Vol.
No
0,0–0,1%
$1,537 Vol.
No
0,2–0,3%
$14,933 Vol.
No
0,4–0,5%
$6,001 Vol.
Sì
0,6–0,7%
$4,389 Vol.
No
0,8–0,9%
$4,121 Vol.
No
1,0%+
$610 Vol.
No
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q2 of 2026 compared with the most recent quarter (quarter-on-previous-quarter) in the "GDP Second quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for August 12, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.The primary catalyst anchoring near-certain trader consensus on 0.4–0.5% UK GDP growth QoQ for Q2 2026 is the Office for National Statistics preliminary estimate released August 13, confirming exactly 0.4% expansion, in line with economist forecasts after the 0.6% Q1 print. Services and consumer spending momentum, alongside stable labor market conditions, supported the outcome and aligned market-implied odds with the realized figure. While the preliminary release carries typical revision risk in subsequent quarterly national accounts, any material shift outside the 0.4–0.5% band would require substantial data adjustments not signaled in leading monthly indicators or consensus estimates.
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q2 of 2026 compared with the most recent quarter (quarter-on-previous-quarter) in the "GDP Second quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for August 12, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Mercato aperto: May 26, 2026, 2:11 PM ET
Volume
$35,535Data di fine
12 ago 2026Mercato aperto
May 26, 2026, 2:11 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Esito proposto: No
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: No
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q2 of 2026 compared with the most recent quarter (quarter-on-previous-quarter) in the "GDP Second quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for August 12, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.The primary catalyst anchoring near-certain trader consensus on 0.4–0.5% UK GDP growth QoQ for Q2 2026 is the Office for National Statistics preliminary estimate released August 13, confirming exactly 0.4% expansion, in line with economist forecasts after the 0.6% Q1 print. Services and consumer spending momentum, alongside stable labor market conditions, supported the outcome and aligned market-implied odds with the realized figure. While the preliminary release carries typical revision risk in subsequent quarterly national accounts, any material shift outside the 0.4–0.5% band would require substantial data adjustments not signaled in leading monthly indicators or consensus estimates.
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q2 of 2026 compared with the most recent quarter (quarter-on-previous-quarter) in the "GDP Second quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for August 12, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volume
$35,535Data di fine
12 ago 2026Mercato aperto
May 26, 2026, 2:11 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Esito proposto: No
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: No
The primary catalyst anchoring near-certain trader consensus on 0.4–0.5% UK GDP growth QoQ for Q2 2026 is the Office for National Statistics preliminary estimate released August 13, confirming exactly 0.4% expansion, in line with economist forecasts after the 0.6% Q1 print. Services and consumer spending momentum, alongside stable labor market conditions, supported the outcome and aligned market-implied odds with the realized figure. While the preliminary release carries typical revision risk in subsequent quarterly national accounts, any material shift outside the 0.4–0.5% band would require substantial data adjustments not signaled in leading monthly indicators or consensus estimates.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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