Recent Q2 2026 GDP growth of 1.5% annualized, down from 2.1% in Q1, alongside stable unemployment near 4.1% and resilient consumer spending, has shaped trader views on Q3 outcomes. Professional forecasters project a pickup to around 2.5% for the current quarter amid a shift toward investment-led expansion and contained inflation pressures. Market-implied odds place the highest probability on ≥3.0% growth, followed by the 2.0–2.5% band, reflecting expectations of a rebound while acknowledging downside risks from labor market softening or policy shifts. Upcoming data releases, including August employment figures and the Q3 advance estimate, represent key near-term catalysts that could adjust these probabilities.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato≥3.0% 38%
2.0–2.5% 26%
2.5–3.0% 20%
1.5–2.0% 9%
$17,181 Vol.
$17,181 Vol.
29 ott 2026
<0.5%
3%
0.5–1.0%
5%
1.0–1.5%
5%
1.5–2.0%
9%
2.0–2.5%
26%
2.5–3.0%
20%
≥3.0%
38%
≥3.0% 38%
2.0–2.5% 26%
2.5–3.0% 20%
1.5–2.0% 9%
$17,181 Vol.
$17,181 Vol.
29 ott 2026
<0.5%
$760 Vol.
3%
0.5–1.0%
$470 Vol.
5%
1.0–1.5%
$546 Vol.
5%
1.5–2.0%
$599 Vol.
9%
2.0–2.5%
$1,743 Vol.
26%
2.5–3.0%
$3,145 Vol.
20%
≥3.0%
$9,917 Vol.
38%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.Recent Q2 2026 GDP growth of 1.5% annualized, down from 2.1% in Q1, alongside stable unemployment near 4.1% and resilient consumer spending, has shaped trader views on Q3 outcomes. Professional forecasters project a pickup to around 2.5% for the current quarter amid a shift toward investment-led expansion and contained inflation pressures. Market-implied odds place the highest probability on ≥3.0% growth, followed by the 2.0–2.5% band, reflecting expectations of a rebound while acknowledging downside risks from labor market softening or policy shifts. Upcoming data releases, including August employment figures and the Q3 advance estimate, represent key near-term catalysts that could adjust these probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
Mercato aperto: Jul 31, 2026, 5:38 PM ET
Volume
$17,181Data di fine
29 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 31, 2026, 5:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.Recent Q2 2026 GDP growth of 1.5% annualized, down from 2.1% in Q1, alongside stable unemployment near 4.1% and resilient consumer spending, has shaped trader views on Q3 outcomes. Professional forecasters project a pickup to around 2.5% for the current quarter amid a shift toward investment-led expansion and contained inflation pressures. Market-implied odds place the highest probability on ≥3.0% growth, followed by the 2.0–2.5% band, reflecting expectations of a rebound while acknowledging downside risks from labor market softening or policy shifts. Upcoming data releases, including August employment figures and the Q3 advance estimate, represent key near-term catalysts that could adjust these probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
Volume
$17,181Data di fine
29 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 31, 2026, 5:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Q2 2026 GDP growth of 1.5% annualized, down from 2.1% in Q1, alongside stable unemployment near 4.1% and resilient consumer spending, has shaped trader views on Q3 outcomes. Professional forecasters project a pickup to around 2.5% for the current quarter amid a shift toward investment-led expansion and contained inflation pressures. Market-implied odds place the highest probability on ≥3.0% growth, followed by the 2.0–2.5% band, reflecting expectations of a rebound while acknowledging downside risks from labor market softening or policy shifts. Upcoming data releases, including August employment figures and the Q3 advance estimate, represent key near-term catalysts that could adjust these probabilities.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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