Successful U.S. military recruiting across all branches in fiscal year 2026, combined with the absence of any congressional legislation or presidential action to authorize conscription, underpins the 98.4% trader consensus that no draft will be authorized this year. The all-volunteer force has met or exceeded accession targets without invoking the Selective Service System beyond routine registration updates set for December. Historical precedent shows that reinstating inductions requires explicit congressional passage and presidential signature, steps not taken amid current force levels. Late-year developments such as a major escalation in active conflicts or sudden recruitment shortfalls could still prompt emergency measures before year-end.