Avengers: Doomsday commands the market lead at 72.5% implied probability because its December 18 release positions the MCU crossover as the year’s premier tentpole event, with Robert Downey Jr. returning in a high-profile role and the franchise’s history of massive holiday openings fueling trader consensus. Strong early box office tracking reports from industry insiders, including descriptions of the film “exploding” on long-lead metrics at CinemaCon, have reinforced momentum despite recent Marvel fatigue concerns. Spider-Man: Brand New Day trails at 14.5% on the strength of its July 31 slot and Tom Holland’s draw, though it contends with earlier 2026 competition like The Super Mario Galaxy Movie’s current record domestic debut. Lower-probability entries such as Toy Story 5 and Dune: Messiah lag due to mid-year timing and comparatively limited franchise crossover appeal that historically caps opening-weekend ceilings.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoQuale film ha il più grande weekend di apertura nel 2026?
Quale film ha il più grande weekend di apertura nel 2026?
Avengers: Doomsday 73%
Spider-Man: Brand New Day 15%
L'Odissea 3.1%
Toy Story 5 3.1%
$1,571,931 Vol.
$1,571,931 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Avengers: Doomsday
73%
Spider-Man: Brand New Day
15%
L'Odissea
3%
Toy Story 5
3%
Dune: Messiah
2%
Star Wars: The Mandalorian e Grogu
1%
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping
<1%
Il film di Super Mario Galaxy
<1%
Avengers: Doomsday 73%
Spider-Man: Brand New Day 15%
L'Odissea 3.1%
Toy Story 5 3.1%
$1,571,931 Vol.
$1,571,931 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Avengers: Doomsday
$118,995 Vol.
73%
Spider-Man: Brand New Day
$43,631 Vol.
15%
L'Odissea
$146,997 Vol.
3%
Toy Story 5
$181,713 Vol.
3%
Dune: Messiah
$85,190 Vol.
2%
Star Wars: The Mandalorian e Grogu
$34,991 Vol.
1%
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping
$59,114 Vol.
<1%
Il film di Super Mario Galaxy
$18,306 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses more domestically on its opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. The “Weekend Box Office Performance” table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its 3-day domestic opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win.
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Avengers: Doomsday commands the market lead at 72.5% implied probability because its December 18 release positions the MCU crossover as the year’s premier tentpole event, with Robert Downey Jr. returning in a high-profile role and the franchise’s history of massive holiday openings fueling trader consensus. Strong early box office tracking reports from industry insiders, including descriptions of the film “exploding” on long-lead metrics at CinemaCon, have reinforced momentum despite recent Marvel fatigue concerns. Spider-Man: Brand New Day trails at 14.5% on the strength of its July 31 slot and Tom Holland’s draw, though it contends with earlier 2026 competition like The Super Mario Galaxy Movie’s current record domestic debut. Lower-probability entries such as Toy Story 5 and Dune: Messiah lag due to mid-year timing and comparatively limited franchise crossover appeal that historically caps opening-weekend ceilings.
This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses more domestically on its opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. The “Weekend Box Office Performance” table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its 3-day domestic opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win.
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its 3-day domestic opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win.
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Mercato aperto: Nov 12, 2025, 5:18 PM ET
Volume
$1,571,931Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 12, 2025, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses more domestically on its opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. The “Weekend Box Office Performance” table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its 3-day domestic opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win.
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Avengers: Doomsday commands the market lead at 72.5% implied probability because its December 18 release positions the MCU crossover as the year’s premier tentpole event, with Robert Downey Jr. returning in a high-profile role and the franchise’s history of massive holiday openings fueling trader consensus. Strong early box office tracking reports from industry insiders, including descriptions of the film “exploding” on long-lead metrics at CinemaCon, have reinforced momentum despite recent Marvel fatigue concerns. Spider-Man: Brand New Day trails at 14.5% on the strength of its July 31 slot and Tom Holland’s draw, though it contends with earlier 2026 competition like The Super Mario Galaxy Movie’s current record domestic debut. Lower-probability entries such as Toy Story 5 and Dune: Messiah lag due to mid-year timing and comparatively limited franchise crossover appeal that historically caps opening-weekend ceilings.
This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses more domestically on its opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. The “Weekend Box Office Performance” table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its 3-day domestic opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win.
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its 3-day domestic opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win.
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Volume
$1,571,931Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 12, 2025, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Avengers: Doomsday commands the market lead at 72.5% implied probability because its December 18 release positions the MCU crossover as the year’s premier tentpole event, with Robert Downey Jr. returning in a high-profile role and the franchise’s history of massive holiday openings fueling trader consensus. Strong early box office tracking reports from industry insiders, including descriptions of the film “exploding” on long-lead metrics at CinemaCon, have reinforced momentum despite recent Marvel fatigue concerns. Spider-Man: Brand New Day trails at 14.5% on the strength of its July 31 slot and Tom Holland’s draw, though it contends with earlier 2026 competition like The Super Mario Galaxy Movie’s current record domestic debut. Lower-probability entries such as Toy Story 5 and Dune: Messiah lag due to mid-year timing and comparatively limited franchise crossover appeal that historically caps opening-weekend ceilings.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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