Apple's long track record of annual iPhone releases, with new models typically launching each September, underpins the 98.6% market-implied probability for an iPhone 18 in 2026. Supply chain reports, chip development cycles, and consistent executive commentary reinforce expectations that the next-generation device will follow the iPhone 17's 2025 debut without interruption. Traders view the pattern as highly reliable given Apple's manufacturing scale and software ecosystem alignment. While extreme supply disruptions, major regulatory hurdles in key markets, or unforeseen technical setbacks could theoretically shift timelines, historical precedent shows such events rarely prevent a yearly launch.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoApple rilascerà iPhone 18 nel 2026?
Apple rilascerà iPhone 18 nel 2026?
99% probabilità
$173,240 Vol.
$173,240 Vol.
30 dic 2026
99% probabilità
$173,240 Vol.
$173,240 Vol.
30 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple's long track record of annual iPhone releases, with new models typically launching each September, underpins the 98.6% market-implied probability for an iPhone 18 in 2026. Supply chain reports, chip development cycles, and consistent executive commentary reinforce expectations that the next-generation device will follow the iPhone 17's 2025 debut without interruption. Traders view the pattern as highly reliable given Apple's manufacturing scale and software ecosystem alignment. While extreme supply disruptions, major regulatory hurdles in key markets, or unforeseen technical setbacks could theoretically shift timelines, historical precedent shows such events rarely prevent a yearly launch.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ET
Volume
$173,240Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple's long track record of annual iPhone releases, with new models typically launching each September, underpins the 98.6% market-implied probability for an iPhone 18 in 2026. Supply chain reports, chip development cycles, and consistent executive commentary reinforce expectations that the next-generation device will follow the iPhone 17's 2025 debut without interruption. Traders view the pattern as highly reliable given Apple's manufacturing scale and software ecosystem alignment. While extreme supply disruptions, major regulatory hurdles in key markets, or unforeseen technical setbacks could theoretically shift timelines, historical precedent shows such events rarely prevent a yearly launch.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$173,240Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Apple's long track record of annual iPhone releases, with new models typically launching each September, underpins the 98.6% market-implied probability for an iPhone 18 in 2026. Supply chain reports, chip development cycles, and consistent executive commentary reinforce expectations that the next-generation device will follow the iPhone 17's 2025 debut without interruption. Traders view the pattern as highly reliable given Apple's manufacturing scale and software ecosystem alignment. While extreme supply disruptions, major regulatory hurdles in key markets, or unforeseen technical setbacks could theoretically shift timelines, historical precedent shows such events rarely prevent a yearly launch.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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