Recent August outages, including a three-hour disruption on August 28 tied to an upstream cloud provider and multiple incidents on August 24 affecting Claude.ai, the API, Code, and Cowork, have shaped trader expectations for September downtime. Anthropic’s large language models continue facing elevated error rates amid rapid scaling and demand growth, with status pages logging dozens of incidents over 90 days despite overall 99%+ uptime. The closely matched 35% and 32.5% probabilities on 8-10 versus 11-13 days reflect uncertainty over whether infrastructure mitigations will reduce frequency or if competitive pressures and agentic workloads will sustain the recent pattern of partial outages.