Iran’s Islamic Republic maintains a legal system grounded in Sharia, where the Islamic Penal Code criminalizes same-sex relations with penalties including execution, rendering same-sex marriage incompatible with constitutional requirements and Guardian Council oversight. The conservative Majlis shows no legislative proposals or reform signals, while ongoing enforcement targets LGBT individuals amid reports of arrests and discrimination. Leadership transition following the 2026 assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, now under Mojtaba Khamenei amid wartime conditions, has prioritized internal consolidation over social policy shifts. Trader consensus at 98% for “No” by the December 2026 deadline reflects these entrenched barriers, with resolution hinging on verifiable domestic recognition within Iran. Only an improbable regime upheaval or fundamental reinterpretation of religious law could alter the trajectory before the cutoff.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSì
2% probabilità
$79,172 Vol.
$79,172 Vol.
30 dic 2026
Sì
2% probabilità
$79,172 Vol.
$79,172 Vol.
30 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the government of Iran legally recognizes marriage between two people of the same sex anywhere within Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legal recognition refers to any law, constitutional amendment, or binding judicial decision that allows two adults of the same sex to marry with the same legal status as opposite-sex marriages under Iranian law.
Recognition must apply within Iran’s legal system and permit same-sex couples to enter a legally valid marriage recognized by Iranian civil or religious authorities. The recognition must be in force by the listed deadline.
The legalization of civil unions, domestic partnerships, or other forms of limited recognition that do not grant the legal status of marriage will not qualify.
Recognition of marriages performed abroad without permitting such marriages to be performed within Iran will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran’s Islamic Republic maintains a legal system grounded in Sharia, where the Islamic Penal Code criminalizes same-sex relations with penalties including execution, rendering same-sex marriage incompatible with constitutional requirements and Guardian Council oversight. The conservative Majlis shows no legislative proposals or reform signals, while ongoing enforcement targets LGBT individuals amid reports of arrests and discrimination. Leadership transition following the 2026 assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, now under Mojtaba Khamenei amid wartime conditions, has prioritized internal consolidation over social policy shifts. Trader consensus at 98% for “No” by the December 2026 deadline reflects these entrenched barriers, with resolution hinging on verifiable domestic recognition within Iran. Only an improbable regime upheaval or fundamental reinterpretation of religious law could alter the trajectory before the cutoff.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the government of Iran legally recognizes marriage between two people of the same sex anywhere within Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legal recognition refers to any law, constitutional amendment, or binding judicial decision that allows two adults of the same sex to marry with the same legal status as opposite-sex marriages under Iranian law.
Recognition must apply within Iran’s legal system and permit same-sex couples to enter a legally valid marriage recognized by Iranian civil or religious authorities. The recognition must be in force by the listed deadline.
The legalization of civil unions, domestic partnerships, or other forms of limited recognition that do not grant the legal status of marriage will not qualify.
Recognition of marriages performed abroad without permitting such marriages to be performed within Iran will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Legal recognition refers to any law, constitutional amendment, or binding judicial decision that allows two adults of the same sex to marry with the same legal status as opposite-sex marriages under Iranian law.
Recognition must apply within Iran’s legal system and permit same-sex couples to enter a legally valid marriage recognized by Iranian civil or religious authorities. The recognition must be in force by the listed deadline.
The legalization of civil unions, domestic partnerships, or other forms of limited recognition that do not grant the legal status of marriage will not qualify.
Recognition of marriages performed abroad without permitting such marriages to be performed within Iran will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Mar 17, 2026, 8:48 PM ET
Volume
$79,172Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 17, 2026, 8:48 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the government of Iran legally recognizes marriage between two people of the same sex anywhere within Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legal recognition refers to any law, constitutional amendment, or binding judicial decision that allows two adults of the same sex to marry with the same legal status as opposite-sex marriages under Iranian law.
Recognition must apply within Iran’s legal system and permit same-sex couples to enter a legally valid marriage recognized by Iranian civil or religious authorities. The recognition must be in force by the listed deadline.
The legalization of civil unions, domestic partnerships, or other forms of limited recognition that do not grant the legal status of marriage will not qualify.
Recognition of marriages performed abroad without permitting such marriages to be performed within Iran will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran’s Islamic Republic maintains a legal system grounded in Sharia, where the Islamic Penal Code criminalizes same-sex relations with penalties including execution, rendering same-sex marriage incompatible with constitutional requirements and Guardian Council oversight. The conservative Majlis shows no legislative proposals or reform signals, while ongoing enforcement targets LGBT individuals amid reports of arrests and discrimination. Leadership transition following the 2026 assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, now under Mojtaba Khamenei amid wartime conditions, has prioritized internal consolidation over social policy shifts. Trader consensus at 98% for “No” by the December 2026 deadline reflects these entrenched barriers, with resolution hinging on verifiable domestic recognition within Iran. Only an improbable regime upheaval or fundamental reinterpretation of religious law could alter the trajectory before the cutoff.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the government of Iran legally recognizes marriage between two people of the same sex anywhere within Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legal recognition refers to any law, constitutional amendment, or binding judicial decision that allows two adults of the same sex to marry with the same legal status as opposite-sex marriages under Iranian law.
Recognition must apply within Iran’s legal system and permit same-sex couples to enter a legally valid marriage recognized by Iranian civil or religious authorities. The recognition must be in force by the listed deadline.
The legalization of civil unions, domestic partnerships, or other forms of limited recognition that do not grant the legal status of marriage will not qualify.
Recognition of marriages performed abroad without permitting such marriages to be performed within Iran will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Legal recognition refers to any law, constitutional amendment, or binding judicial decision that allows two adults of the same sex to marry with the same legal status as opposite-sex marriages under Iranian law.
Recognition must apply within Iran’s legal system and permit same-sex couples to enter a legally valid marriage recognized by Iranian civil or religious authorities. The recognition must be in force by the listed deadline.
The legalization of civil unions, domestic partnerships, or other forms of limited recognition that do not grant the legal status of marriage will not qualify.
Recognition of marriages performed abroad without permitting such marriages to be performed within Iran will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$79,172Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 17, 2026, 8:48 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...Iran’s Islamic Republic maintains a legal system grounded in Sharia, where the Islamic Penal Code criminalizes same-sex relations with penalties including execution, rendering same-sex marriage incompatible with constitutional requirements and Guardian Council oversight. The conservative Majlis shows no legislative proposals or reform signals, while ongoing enforcement targets LGBT individuals amid reports of arrests and discrimination. Leadership transition following the 2026 assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, now under Mojtaba Khamenei amid wartime conditions, has prioritized internal consolidation over social policy shifts. Trader consensus at 98% for “No” by the December 2026 deadline reflects these entrenched barriers, with resolution hinging on verifiable domestic recognition within Iran. Only an improbable regime upheaval or fundamental reinterpretation of religious law could alter the trajectory before the cutoff.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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