Iranian officials and parliament have issued repeated threats to exit the NPT since mid-2025, citing U.S.-Israeli strikes on nuclear facilities and sanctions snapback risks, with some lawmakers advancing draft bills or emergency proposals. These statements have served primarily as diplomatic leverage amid enrichment disputes and fragile ceasefires rather than triggering formal action under Article X. As of August 2026, Tehran maintains IAEA safeguards engagement, submits working papers to the ongoing NPT review conference process, and continues bilateral talks without issuing official withdrawal notice. Such steps would accelerate isolation from nonproliferation frameworks, restrict nuclear supplier access, and impose procedural timelines that have not been cleared. Trader consensus at 91.5% against withdrawal before 2027 reflects this pattern of rhetorical pressure paired with sustained institutional participation and absence of implementing steps.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoL'Iran si ritirerà dal TNP prima del 2027?
L'Iran si ritirerà dal TNP prima del 2027?
Sì
9% probabilità
$359,118 Vol.
$359,118 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
9% probabilità
$359,118 Vol.
$359,118 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Iranian officials and parliament have issued repeated threats to exit the NPT since mid-2025, citing U.S.-Israeli strikes on nuclear facilities and sanctions snapback risks, with some lawmakers advancing draft bills or emergency proposals. These statements have served primarily as diplomatic leverage amid enrichment disputes and fragile ceasefires rather than triggering formal action under Article X. As of August 2026, Tehran maintains IAEA safeguards engagement, submits working papers to the ongoing NPT review conference process, and continues bilateral talks without issuing official withdrawal notice. Such steps would accelerate isolation from nonproliferation frameworks, restrict nuclear supplier access, and impose procedural timelines that have not been cleared. Trader consensus at 91.5% against withdrawal before 2027 reflects this pattern of rhetorical pressure paired with sustained institutional participation and absence of implementing steps.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ET
Volume
$359,118Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Iranian officials and parliament have issued repeated threats to exit the NPT since mid-2025, citing U.S.-Israeli strikes on nuclear facilities and sanctions snapback risks, with some lawmakers advancing draft bills or emergency proposals. These statements have served primarily as diplomatic leverage amid enrichment disputes and fragile ceasefires rather than triggering formal action under Article X. As of August 2026, Tehran maintains IAEA safeguards engagement, submits working papers to the ongoing NPT review conference process, and continues bilateral talks without issuing official withdrawal notice. Such steps would accelerate isolation from nonproliferation frameworks, restrict nuclear supplier access, and impose procedural timelines that have not been cleared. Trader consensus at 91.5% against withdrawal before 2027 reflects this pattern of rhetorical pressure paired with sustained institutional participation and absence of implementing steps.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$359,118Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iranian officials and parliament have issued repeated threats to exit the NPT since mid-2025, citing U.S.-Israeli strikes on nuclear facilities and sanctions snapback risks, with some lawmakers advancing draft bills or emergency proposals. These statements have served primarily as diplomatic leverage amid enrichment disputes and fragile ceasefires rather than triggering formal action under Article X. As of August 2026, Tehran maintains IAEA safeguards engagement, submits working papers to the ongoing NPT review conference process, and continues bilateral talks without issuing official withdrawal notice. Such steps would accelerate isolation from nonproliferation frameworks, restrict nuclear supplier access, and impose procedural timelines that have not been cleared. Trader consensus at 91.5% against withdrawal before 2027 reflects this pattern of rhetorical pressure paired with sustained institutional participation and absence of implementing steps.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Domande frequenti