The Iranian regime's institutional continuity after the February 2026 leadership transition and the April ceasefire has reinforced trader expectations that it will endure through the final two weeks before May 31. Security forces have maintained control amid US naval blockade enforcement since mid-April, which has restricted oil exports and prompted production cuts, while officials coordinate economic measures and Basij deployments to address shortages and preempt unrest. No large-scale protests or military defections have materialized despite the accumulated strain from sanctions and prior strikes. This short resolution window and the absence of immediate triggers for collapse underpin the 99.2 percent implied probability on "No." A sudden escalation in the Hormuz Strait standoff or coordinated internal defections remain the primary developments that could still shift the outcome before the deadline.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoIl regime iraniano cadrà entro il 31 maggio?
Il regime iraniano cadrà entro il 31 maggio?
Sì
$20,832,733 Vol.
$20,832,733 Vol.
31 mag 2026
Sì
$20,832,733 Vol.
$20,832,733 Vol.
31 mag 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The Iranian regime's institutional continuity after the February 2026 leadership transition and the April ceasefire has reinforced trader expectations that it will endure through the final two weeks before May 31. Security forces have maintained control amid US naval blockade enforcement since mid-April, which has restricted oil exports and prompted production cuts, while officials coordinate economic measures and Basij deployments to address shortages and preempt unrest. No large-scale protests or military defections have materialized despite the accumulated strain from sanctions and prior strikes. This short resolution window and the absence of immediate triggers for collapse underpin the 99.2 percent implied probability on "No." A sudden escalation in the Hormuz Strait standoff or coordinated internal defections remain the primary developments that could still shift the outcome before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Apr 1, 2026, 12:20 PM ET
Volume
$20,832,733Data di fine
31 mag 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 1, 2026, 12:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The Iranian regime's institutional continuity after the February 2026 leadership transition and the April ceasefire has reinforced trader expectations that it will endure through the final two weeks before May 31. Security forces have maintained control amid US naval blockade enforcement since mid-April, which has restricted oil exports and prompted production cuts, while officials coordinate economic measures and Basij deployments to address shortages and preempt unrest. No large-scale protests or military defections have materialized despite the accumulated strain from sanctions and prior strikes. This short resolution window and the absence of immediate triggers for collapse underpin the 99.2 percent implied probability on "No." A sudden escalation in the Hormuz Strait standoff or coordinated internal defections remain the primary developments that could still shift the outcome before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$20,832,733Data di fine
31 mag 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 1, 2026, 12:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Iranian regime's institutional continuity after the February 2026 leadership transition and the April ceasefire has reinforced trader expectations that it will endure through the final two weeks before May 31. Security forces have maintained control amid US naval blockade enforcement since mid-April, which has restricted oil exports and prompted production cuts, while officials coordinate economic measures and Basij deployments to address shortages and preempt unrest. No large-scale protests or military defections have materialized despite the accumulated strain from sanctions and prior strikes. This short resolution window and the absence of immediate triggers for collapse underpin the 99.2 percent implied probability on "No." A sudden escalation in the Hormuz Strait standoff or coordinated internal defections remain the primary developments that could still shift the outcome before the deadline.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Domande frequenti