Trader consensus reflects near-certainty that the Iranian regime will endure past May 31, driven by its proven resilience amid severe pressures: the U.S. naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz since April 13 has choked oil exports and deepened economic crisis, yet the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has maintained loyalty, quelling earlier 2025–2026 protests through brutal crackdowns without sparking mass defections or uprisings. Supreme Leader Khamenei's death in late February triggered a managed succession, stabilizing elite cohesion despite external airstrikes on nuclear sites. No fresh unrest has emerged in the past week, including after a May 12 Tehran earthquake, amid fragile ceasefire talks. Realistic shifts—sudden IRGC mutiny, overwhelming nationwide protests, or escalated military intervention—face high barriers in the 18-day window.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoIl regime iraniano cadrà entro il 31 maggio?
Il regime iraniano cadrà entro il 31 maggio?
Sì
$19,230,112 Vol.
$19,230,112 Vol.
31 mag 2026
Sì
$19,230,112 Vol.
$19,230,112 Vol.
31 mag 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus reflects near-certainty that the Iranian regime will endure past May 31, driven by its proven resilience amid severe pressures: the U.S. naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz since April 13 has choked oil exports and deepened economic crisis, yet the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has maintained loyalty, quelling earlier 2025–2026 protests through brutal crackdowns without sparking mass defections or uprisings. Supreme Leader Khamenei's death in late February triggered a managed succession, stabilizing elite cohesion despite external airstrikes on nuclear sites. No fresh unrest has emerged in the past week, including after a May 12 Tehran earthquake, amid fragile ceasefire talks. Realistic shifts—sudden IRGC mutiny, overwhelming nationwide protests, or escalated military intervention—face high barriers in the 18-day window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Apr 1, 2026, 12:20 PM ET
Volume
$19,230,112Data di fine
31 mag 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 1, 2026, 12:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus reflects near-certainty that the Iranian regime will endure past May 31, driven by its proven resilience amid severe pressures: the U.S. naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz since April 13 has choked oil exports and deepened economic crisis, yet the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has maintained loyalty, quelling earlier 2025–2026 protests through brutal crackdowns without sparking mass defections or uprisings. Supreme Leader Khamenei's death in late February triggered a managed succession, stabilizing elite cohesion despite external airstrikes on nuclear sites. No fresh unrest has emerged in the past week, including after a May 12 Tehran earthquake, amid fragile ceasefire talks. Realistic shifts—sudden IRGC mutiny, overwhelming nationwide protests, or escalated military intervention—face high barriers in the 18-day window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$19,254,553Data di fine
31 mag 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 1, 2026, 12:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects near-certainty that the Iranian regime will endure past May 31, driven by its proven resilience amid severe pressures: the U.S. naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz since April 13 has choked oil exports and deepened economic crisis, yet the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has maintained loyalty, quelling earlier 2025–2026 protests through brutal crackdowns without sparking mass defections or uprisings. Supreme Leader Khamenei's death in late February triggered a managed succession, stabilizing elite cohesion despite external airstrikes on nuclear sites. No fresh unrest has emerged in the past week, including after a May 12 Tehran earthquake, amid fragile ceasefire talks. Realistic shifts—sudden IRGC mutiny, overwhelming nationwide protests, or escalated military intervention—face high barriers in the 18-day window.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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