Democrats’ prospects of regaining House control in the November 2026 midterms represent the central driver behind the 68% implied probability that President Trump will face impeachment before January 2029. Multiple Democratic resolutions citing alleged abuses of power, personal enrichment, and executive actions have already been introduced but remain stalled in the Republican-controlled chamber. Traders are pricing in the likelihood that a new Democratic majority would prioritize articles of impeachment early in the 119th Congress, consistent with Trump’s own public statements and historical patterns of opposition-led inquiries. Short-term passage remains improbable absent a shift in congressional control, while Senate conviction thresholds and procedural timelines continue to shape longer-term assessments reflected in current market pricing.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoTrump sarà messo sotto accusa prima della fine del suo mandato?
Trump sarà messo sotto accusa prima della fine del suo mandato?
Sì
68% probabilità
$94,121 Vol.
$94,121 Vol.
19 gen 2029
Sì
68% probabilità
$94,121 Vol.
$94,121 Vol.
19 gen 2029
This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump between market creation and January 20, 2029, at 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.Democrats’ prospects of regaining House control in the November 2026 midterms represent the central driver behind the 68% implied probability that President Trump will face impeachment before January 2029. Multiple Democratic resolutions citing alleged abuses of power, personal enrichment, and executive actions have already been introduced but remain stalled in the Republican-controlled chamber. Traders are pricing in the likelihood that a new Democratic majority would prioritize articles of impeachment early in the 119th Congress, consistent with Trump’s own public statements and historical patterns of opposition-led inquiries. Short-term passage remains improbable absent a shift in congressional control, while Senate conviction thresholds and procedural timelines continue to shape longer-term assessments reflected in current market pricing.
This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump between market creation and January 20, 2029, at 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Mercato aperto: Mar 19, 2026, 2:04 PM ET
Volume
$94,121Data di fine
20 gen 2029Mercato aperto
Mar 19, 2026, 2:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump between market creation and January 20, 2029, at 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.Democrats’ prospects of regaining House control in the November 2026 midterms represent the central driver behind the 68% implied probability that President Trump will face impeachment before January 2029. Multiple Democratic resolutions citing alleged abuses of power, personal enrichment, and executive actions have already been introduced but remain stalled in the Republican-controlled chamber. Traders are pricing in the likelihood that a new Democratic majority would prioritize articles of impeachment early in the 119th Congress, consistent with Trump’s own public statements and historical patterns of opposition-led inquiries. Short-term passage remains improbable absent a shift in congressional control, while Senate conviction thresholds and procedural timelines continue to shape longer-term assessments reflected in current market pricing.
This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump between market creation and January 20, 2029, at 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Volume
$94,121Data di fine
20 gen 2029Mercato aperto
Mar 19, 2026, 2:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Democrats’ prospects of regaining House control in the November 2026 midterms represent the central driver behind the 68% implied probability that President Trump will face impeachment before January 2029. Multiple Democratic resolutions citing alleged abuses of power, personal enrichment, and executive actions have already been introduced but remain stalled in the Republican-controlled chamber. Traders are pricing in the likelihood that a new Democratic majority would prioritize articles of impeachment early in the 119th Congress, consistent with Trump’s own public statements and historical patterns of opposition-led inquiries. Short-term passage remains improbable absent a shift in congressional control, while Senate conviction thresholds and procedural timelines continue to shape longer-term assessments reflected in current market pricing.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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