Republicans currently hold narrow majorities in both the House and Senate, creating a high procedural barrier to House passage of articles of impeachment and an even steeper two-thirds Senate threshold for conviction. Democratic resolutions introduced earlier in the 119th Congress, including those tied to foreign policy actions in 2026, have been tabled without Republican support. Midterm elections in November 2026 could shift House control, but any new Democratic majority would not convene until January 2027, leaving minimal time before the December 31, 2026 resolution deadline. Traders assign 98.3% probability to no impeachment because these institutional and calendar constraints outweigh scattered calls for removal, though late-breaking developments such as major scandals or decisive midterm results remain the primary variables that could still compress timelines.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSì
$1,002,205 Vol.
$1,002,205 Vol.
Sì
$1,002,205 Vol.
$1,002,205 Vol.
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Mercato aperto: Jul 25, 2025, 2:47 PM ET
Risolutore
0x157Ce2d67...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Risolutore
0x157Ce2d67...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Republicans currently hold narrow majorities in both the House and Senate, creating a high procedural barrier to House passage of articles of impeachment and an even steeper two-thirds Senate threshold for conviction. Democratic resolutions introduced earlier in the 119th Congress, including those tied to foreign policy actions in 2026, have been tabled without Republican support. Midterm elections in November 2026 could shift House control, but any new Democratic majority would not convene until January 2027, leaving minimal time before the December 31, 2026 resolution deadline. Traders assign 98.3% probability to no impeachment because these institutional and calendar constraints outweigh scattered calls for removal, though late-breaking developments such as major scandals or decisive midterm results remain the primary variables that could still compress timelines.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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