The Alaska Senate race between incumbent Republican Dan Sullivan and Democratic challenger Mary Peltola remains a tossup heading into the November general election under ranked-choice voting, with recent polling averages showing the candidates separated by roughly 1 point or less. Peltola’s strong performance in the August top-four primary, combined with her fundraising edge and focus on fisheries policy, fuel costs, and healthcare, has kept the contest competitive in a state that leans Republican but features a large independent electorate. Sullivan’s incumbency and alignment with the Trump administration provide counterbalance, though national attention on Senate control has amplified both campaigns’ efforts. The presence of additional candidates on the ballot and the first-round tally mechanics further contribute to expectations of narrow margins, with few developments in the past month creating clear separation between the contenders.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日ペルトラ 0-3％ 21%
サリバン 6-9％ 16%
ペルトラ12％以上 15%
サリバン 9〜12％ 14%
新規
新規
2026/11/03
サリバン 12％以上
4%
サリバン 9〜12％
14%
サリバン 6-9％
16%
サリバン 3〜6％
10%
サリバン 0〜3％
19%
ペルトラ 0-3％
21%
ペルトラ 3〜6％
12%
ペルトラ 6～9%
12%
ペルトラ 9～12％
3%
ペルトラ12％以上
15%
ペルトラ 0-3％ 21%
サリバン 6-9％ 16%
ペルトラ12％以上 15%
サリバン 9〜12％ 14%
新規
新規
2026/11/03
サリバン 12％以上
$249 Vol.
4%
サリバン 9〜12％
$45 Vol.
14%
サリバン 6-9％
$44 Vol.
16%
サリバン 3〜6％
$66 Vol.
10%
サリバン 0〜3％
$66 Vol.
19%
ペルトラ 0-3％
$182 Vol.
21%
ペルトラ 3〜6％
$63 Vol.
12%
ペルトラ 6～9%
$50 Vol.
12%
ペルトラ 9～12％
$54 Vol.
3%
ペルトラ12％以上
$50 Vol.
15%
The first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The candidates named in this market are individual candidates appearing on the general election ballot. They do not represent party options, and this market will not resolve based on the party affiliation of any candidate.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Alaska senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Alaska Senate race between incumbent Republican Dan Sullivan and Democratic challenger Mary Peltola remains a tossup heading into the November general election under ranked-choice voting, with recent polling averages showing the candidates separated by roughly 1 point or less. Peltola’s strong performance in the August top-four primary, combined with her fundraising edge and focus on fisheries policy, fuel costs, and healthcare, has kept the contest competitive in a state that leans Republican but features a large independent electorate. Sullivan’s incumbency and alignment with the Trump administration provide counterbalance, though national attention on Senate control has amplified both campaigns’ efforts. The presence of additional candidates on the ballot and the first-round tally mechanics further contribute to expectations of narrow margins, with few developments in the past month creating clear separation between the contenders.
The first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The candidates named in this market are individual candidates appearing on the general election ballot. They do not represent party options, and this market will not resolve based on the party affiliation of any candidate.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Alaska senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The candidates named in this market are individual candidates appearing on the general election ballot. They do not represent party options, and this market will not resolve based on the party affiliation of any candidate.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Alaska senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Sep 17, 2026, 2:29 PM ET
音量
$869終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Sep 17, 2026, 2:29 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...The first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The candidates named in this market are individual candidates appearing on the general election ballot. They do not represent party options, and this market will not resolve based on the party affiliation of any candidate.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Alaska senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Alaska Senate race between incumbent Republican Dan Sullivan and Democratic challenger Mary Peltola remains a tossup heading into the November general election under ranked-choice voting, with recent polling averages showing the candidates separated by roughly 1 point or less. Peltola’s strong performance in the August top-four primary, combined with her fundraising edge and focus on fisheries policy, fuel costs, and healthcare, has kept the contest competitive in a state that leans Republican but features a large independent electorate. Sullivan’s incumbency and alignment with the Trump administration provide counterbalance, though national attention on Senate control has amplified both campaigns’ efforts. The presence of additional candidates on the ballot and the first-round tally mechanics further contribute to expectations of narrow margins, with few developments in the past month creating clear separation between the contenders.
The first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The candidates named in this market are individual candidates appearing on the general election ballot. They do not represent party options, and this market will not resolve based on the party affiliation of any candidate.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Alaska senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The candidates named in this market are individual candidates appearing on the general election ballot. They do not represent party options, and this market will not resolve based on the party affiliation of any candidate.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Alaska senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$869終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Sep 17, 2026, 2:29 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...The Alaska Senate race between incumbent Republican Dan Sullivan and Democratic challenger Mary Peltola remains a tossup heading into the November general election under ranked-choice voting, with recent polling averages showing the candidates separated by roughly 1 point or less. Peltola’s strong performance in the August top-four primary, combined with her fundraising edge and focus on fisheries policy, fuel costs, and healthcare, has kept the contest competitive in a state that leans Republican but features a large independent electorate. Sullivan’s incumbency and alignment with the Trump administration provide counterbalance, though national attention on Senate control has amplified both campaigns’ efforts. The presence of additional candidates on the ballot and the first-round tally mechanics further contribute to expectations of narrow margins, with few developments in the past month creating clear separation between the contenders.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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