Recent hotter-than-expected U.S. inflation data have become the dominant driver shifting trader sentiment on Federal Reserve rate-hike probabilities. April 2026 CPI rose 3.8 percent year-over-year—the largest gain since May 2023—while core CPI climbed to 2.8 percent, fueled by energy prices and shelter costs. With the federal funds target still at 3.50–3.75 percent after the April FOMC decision, CME FedWatch now assigns roughly 50 percent odds of a 25-basis-point hike by December and 60 percent by January. Resilient consumer spending and a 4.3 percent unemployment rate have further reduced near-term cut expectations. The June 16–17 FOMC meeting and the May CPI release on June 10 will provide the next key tests for whether the market-implied path toward higher rates solidifies.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$148,571 Vol.
2026/12/09
6月会合
1%
7月会合
6%
9月会合
16%
10月会合
28%
$148,571 Vol.
6月会合
$14,616 Vol.
1%
7月会合
$1,008 Vol.
6%
9月会合
$161 Vol.
16%
10月会合
$1,477 Vol.
28%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent hotter-than-expected U.S. inflation data have become the dominant driver shifting trader sentiment on Federal Reserve rate-hike probabilities. April 2026 CPI rose 3.8 percent year-over-year—the largest gain since May 2023—while core CPI climbed to 2.8 percent, fueled by energy prices and shelter costs. With the federal funds target still at 3.50–3.75 percent after the April FOMC decision, CME FedWatch now assigns roughly 50 percent odds of a 25-basis-point hike by December and 60 percent by January. Resilient consumer spending and a 4.3 percent unemployment rate have further reduced near-term cut expectations. The June 16–17 FOMC meeting and the May CPI release on June 10 will provide the next key tests for whether the market-implied path toward higher rates solidifies.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
音量
$148,571終了日
2026/10/29マーケット開始日
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent hotter-than-expected U.S. inflation data have become the dominant driver shifting trader sentiment on Federal Reserve rate-hike probabilities. April 2026 CPI rose 3.8 percent year-over-year—the largest gain since May 2023—while core CPI climbed to 2.8 percent, fueled by energy prices and shelter costs. With the federal funds target still at 3.50–3.75 percent after the April FOMC decision, CME FedWatch now assigns roughly 50 percent odds of a 25-basis-point hike by December and 60 percent by January. Resilient consumer spending and a 4.3 percent unemployment rate have further reduced near-term cut expectations. The June 16–17 FOMC meeting and the May CPI release on June 10 will provide the next key tests for whether the market-implied path toward higher rates solidifies.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$148,571終了日
2026/10/29マーケット開始日
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent hotter-than-expected U.S. inflation data have become the dominant driver shifting trader sentiment on Federal Reserve rate-hike probabilities. April 2026 CPI rose 3.8 percent year-over-year—the largest gain since May 2023—while core CPI climbed to 2.8 percent, fueled by energy prices and shelter costs. With the federal funds target still at 3.50–3.75 percent after the April FOMC decision, CME FedWatch now assigns roughly 50 percent odds of a 25-basis-point hike by December and 60 percent by January. Resilient consumer spending and a 4.3 percent unemployment rate have further reduced near-term cut expectations. The June 16–17 FOMC meeting and the May CPI release on June 10 will provide the next key tests for whether the market-implied path toward higher rates solidifies.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問