Recent PAGASA guidance and model consensus point to a 33–34°C afternoon peak in Manila on May 18 under prevailing easterly flow and modest moisture levels that limit convective cloud development. This aligns with typical late-May climatology for the region, where daytime highs commonly reach 33–35°C amid high solar insolation and urban heat-island effects. Traders appear to assign the highest probability to 35°C because slight reductions in cloud cover or localized warming could push readings above official forecasts, while 34°C and 33°C remain strong alternatives given the current steering pattern and absence of significant tropical moisture. Updated model runs and morning observations tomorrow will determine whether conditions trend warmer or cooler than baseline expectations.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日5月18日のマニラの最高気温は?
35°C 40%
34℃ 28%
33℃ 18%
36°C 13.2%
29℃以下
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
1%
32°C
3%
33℃
18%
34℃
28%
35°C
41%
36°C
13%
37°C
1%
38℃
1%
39℃以上
<1%
35°C 40%
34℃ 28%
33℃ 18%
36°C 13.2%
29℃以下
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
1%
32°C
3%
33℃
18%
34℃
28%
35°C
41%
36°C
13%
37°C
1%
38℃
1%
39℃以上
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日: May 16, 2026, 12:06 AM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Recent PAGASA guidance and model consensus point to a 33–34°C afternoon peak in Manila on May 18 under prevailing easterly flow and modest moisture levels that limit convective cloud development. This aligns with typical late-May climatology for the region, where daytime highs commonly reach 33–35°C amid high solar insolation and urban heat-island effects. Traders appear to assign the highest probability to 35°C because slight reductions in cloud cover or localized warming could push readings above official forecasts, while 34°C and 33°C remain strong alternatives given the current steering pattern and absence of significant tropical moisture. Updated model runs and morning observations tomorrow will determine whether conditions trend warmer or cooler than baseline expectations.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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