Current forecasts from models such as those referenced by the Hong Kong Observatory indicate a daytime high near 28°C on May 17, aligning closely with the month’s climatological average of 28–29°C amid the transition to the wetter summer monsoon. Scattered showers and increasing cloud cover are expected to moderate peak readings, creating tight probabilities between 26°C and 28°C as reflected in the market. Seasonal guidance points to normal-to-above-normal temperatures for May–July under ENSO-neutral conditions, while short-term variables like wind patterns and rainfall timing introduce the narrow spread captured by trader consensus. Updated model runs and official briefings in the next 48 hours will refine the exact maximum.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日5月17日の香港の最高気温は?
27°C 32%
26°C 30%
28°C 25%
25°C 10%
19°C or below
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
1%
24°C
2%
25°C
10%
26°C
30%
27°C
32%
28°C
25%
29°C or higher
8%
27°C 32%
26°C 30%
28°C 25%
25°C 10%
19°C or below
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
1%
24°C
2%
25°C
10%
26°C
30%
27°C
32%
28°C
25%
29°C or higher
8%
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日: May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Current forecasts from models such as those referenced by the Hong Kong Observatory indicate a daytime high near 28°C on May 17, aligning closely with the month’s climatological average of 28–29°C amid the transition to the wetter summer monsoon. Scattered showers and increasing cloud cover are expected to moderate peak readings, creating tight probabilities between 26°C and 28°C as reflected in the market. Seasonal guidance points to normal-to-above-normal temperatures for May–July under ENSO-neutral conditions, while short-term variables like wind patterns and rainfall timing introduce the narrow spread captured by trader consensus. Updated model runs and official briefings in the next 48 hours will refine the exact maximum.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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