Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a daytime high of 20°C (36%) or 19°C (26%) in Warsaw, reflecting the latest forecast model runs from ECMWF, GFS, and Poland's IMGW showing peak temperatures around 19-21°C under partly cloudy skies with scattered showers. Morning observations at Warsaw Chopin Airport station—site of the official measurement—started near 11-12°C, aligning with expected warming from a mild southerly airflow amid moderate humidity and light SSE winds (10-20 km/h). Mid-May climatology supports this, with historical averages near 19°C, though potential afternoon thundery showers introduce uncertainty that could cap peaks below 21°C. Hourly updates from IMGW and NOAA models through evening will refine probabilities as the market nears resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Highest temperature in Warsaw on May 15?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on May 15?
20°C 36%
19°C 26%
21°C 15%
18°C 11.3%
新規
$31,062 Vol.
新規
$31,062 Vol.
2026/05/15
15°C or below
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
1%
18°C
11%
19°C
26%
20°C
36%
21°C
15%
22°C
3%
23°C
1%
24°C
<1%
25°C or higher
<1%
20°C 36%
19°C 26%
21°C 15%
18°C 11.3%
新規
$31,062 Vol.
新規
$31,062 Vol.
2026/05/15
15°C or below
$2,882 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$1,067 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$1,608 Vol.
1%
18°C
$2,943 Vol.
11%
19°C
$4,412 Vol.
26%
20°C
$2,331 Vol.
36%
21°C
$3,618 Vol.
15%
22°C
$3,254 Vol.
3%
23°C
$5,969 Vol.
1%
24°C
$1,653 Vol.
<1%
25°C or higher
$1,326 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a daytime high of 20°C (36%) or 19°C (26%) in Warsaw, reflecting the latest forecast model runs from ECMWF, GFS, and Poland's IMGW showing peak temperatures around 19-21°C under partly cloudy skies with scattered showers. Morning observations at Warsaw Chopin Airport station—site of the official measurement—started near 11-12°C, aligning with expected warming from a mild southerly airflow amid moderate humidity and light SSE winds (10-20 km/h). Mid-May climatology supports this, with historical averages near 19°C, though potential afternoon thundery showers introduce uncertainty that could cap peaks below 21°C. Hourly updates from IMGW and NOAA models through evening will refine probabilities as the market nears resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日： May 13, 2026, 12:12 AM ET
音量
$31,062終了日
2026/05/15マーケット開始日
May 13, 2026, 12:12 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a daytime high of 20°C (36%) or 19°C (26%) in Warsaw, reflecting the latest forecast model runs from ECMWF, GFS, and Poland's IMGW showing peak temperatures around 19-21°C under partly cloudy skies with scattered showers. Morning observations at Warsaw Chopin Airport station—site of the official measurement—started near 11-12°C, aligning with expected warming from a mild southerly airflow amid moderate humidity and light SSE winds (10-20 km/h). Mid-May climatology supports this, with historical averages near 19°C, though potential afternoon thundery showers introduce uncertainty that could cap peaks below 21°C. Hourly updates from IMGW and NOAA models through evening will refine probabilities as the market nears resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
音量
$31,062終了日
2026/05/15マーケット開始日
May 13, 2026, 12:12 AM ETTrader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a daytime high of 20°C (36%) or 19°C (26%) in Warsaw, reflecting the latest forecast model runs from ECMWF, GFS, and Poland's IMGW showing peak temperatures around 19-21°C under partly cloudy skies with scattered showers. Morning observations at Warsaw Chopin Airport station—site of the official measurement—started near 11-12°C, aligning with expected warming from a mild southerly airflow amid moderate humidity and light SSE winds (10-20 km/h). Mid-May climatology supports this, with historical averages near 19°C, though potential afternoon thundery showers introduce uncertainty that could cap peaks below 21°C. Hourly updates from IMGW and NOAA models through evening will refine probabilities as the market nears resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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