Latest ensemble guidance from ECMWF and GFS places Istanbul’s May 17 maximum near 20–21 °C under a weak high-pressure ridge, aligning with the market’s near-even split between those two outcomes. Mid-May climatology supports this range, with typical daily highs of 20–22 °C moderated by Black Sea breezes and variable spring cloud cover. Minor model spread arises from uncertain afternoon insolation and the timing of any weak northerly flow; stronger sea breezes or lingering low clouds would cap readings at 19 °C, while brief clearing could allow brief peaks near 22 °C. Updated model runs and hourly observations over the next 48 hours will refine the final distribution before resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日5月17日のイスタンブールの最高気温は？
5月17日のイスタンブールの最高気温は？
21°C 29%
20°C 23%
22°C 16%
19°C 16%
新規
新規
2026/05/17
14°C or below
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
1%
17°C
1%
18°C
3%
19°C
16%
20°C
23%
21°C
29%
22°C
16%
23°C
6%
24°C or higher
3%
21°C 29%
20°C 23%
22°C 16%
19°C 16%
新規
新規
2026/05/17
14°C or below
$150 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$136 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$345 Vol.
1%
17°C
$521 Vol.
1%
18°C
$631 Vol.
3%
19°C
$282 Vol.
16%
20°C
$160 Vol.
23%
21°C
$52 Vol.
29%
22°C
$236 Vol.
16%
23°C
$776 Vol.
6%
24°C or higher
$432 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest ensemble guidance from ECMWF and GFS places Istanbul’s May 17 maximum near 20–21 °C under a weak high-pressure ridge, aligning with the market’s near-even split between those two outcomes. Mid-May climatology supports this range, with typical daily highs of 20–22 °C moderated by Black Sea breezes and variable spring cloud cover. Minor model spread arises from uncertain afternoon insolation and the timing of any weak northerly flow; stronger sea breezes or lingering low clouds would cap readings at 19 °C, while brief clearing could allow brief peaks near 22 °C. Updated model runs and hourly observations over the next 48 hours will refine the final distribution before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日： May 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
音量
$3,723終了日
2026/05/17マーケット開始日
May 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest ensemble guidance from ECMWF and GFS places Istanbul’s May 17 maximum near 20–21 °C under a weak high-pressure ridge, aligning with the market’s near-even split between those two outcomes. Mid-May climatology supports this range, with typical daily highs of 20–22 °C moderated by Black Sea breezes and variable spring cloud cover. Minor model spread arises from uncertain afternoon insolation and the timing of any weak northerly flow; stronger sea breezes or lingering low clouds would cap readings at 19 °C, while brief clearing could allow brief peaks near 22 °C. Updated model runs and hourly observations over the next 48 hours will refine the final distribution before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
音量
$3,723終了日
2026/05/17マーケット開始日
May 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ETLatest ensemble guidance from ECMWF and GFS places Istanbul’s May 17 maximum near 20–21 °C under a weak high-pressure ridge, aligning with the market’s near-even split between those two outcomes. Mid-May climatology supports this range, with typical daily highs of 20–22 °C moderated by Black Sea breezes and variable spring cloud cover. Minor model spread arises from uncertain afternoon insolation and the timing of any weak northerly flow; stronger sea breezes or lingering low clouds would cap readings at 19 °C, while brief clearing could allow brief peaks near 22 °C. Updated model runs and hourly observations over the next 48 hours will refine the final distribution before resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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