Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a high temperature of 13°C in Paris on May 15, with 99.8% implied probability, anchored by Météo-France's latest observational data at Paris-Le Bourget Airport—the market's resolution source—showing a midday peak near 13°C under persistent cloud cover, weak showers, and northwest winds capping solar insolation. This week's cool, unstable weather pattern, driven by northerly airflow ushering in a chilly air mass, has kept highs well below May's climatological average of 18°C, consistent with ECMWF and AROME model ensembles projecting low-teens maxima. Realistic challenges include brief afternoon or evening clearing for modest radiative heating toward 14°C, though short-range guidance indicates limited upside before sunset around 9:30 PM local time; final hourly observations will confirm resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日5月15日のパリの最高気温は?
5月15日のパリの最高気温は?
13°C 98.6%
14℃ 1.0%
15°C <1%
16°C <1%
$126,560 Vol.
$126,560 Vol.
13°C
99%
14℃
1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17℃
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C以上
<1%
13°C 98.6%
14℃ 1.0%
15°C <1%
16°C <1%
$126,560 Vol.
$126,560 Vol.
13°C
99%
14℃
1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17℃
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C以上
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日: May 13, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a high temperature of 13°C in Paris on May 15, with 99.8% implied probability, anchored by Météo-France's latest observational data at Paris-Le Bourget Airport—the market's resolution source—showing a midday peak near 13°C under persistent cloud cover, weak showers, and northwest winds capping solar insolation. This week's cool, unstable weather pattern, driven by northerly airflow ushering in a chilly air mass, has kept highs well below May's climatological average of 18°C, consistent with ECMWF and AROME model ensembles projecting low-teens maxima. Realistic challenges include brief afternoon or evening clearing for modest radiative heating toward 14°C, though short-range guidance indicates limited upside before sunset around 9:30 PM local time; final hourly observations will confirm resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問