Trader consensus on Polymarket, with 25°C leading at 37% implied probability followed closely by 24°C (26.5%) and 26°C (19%), mirrors the latest forecast guidance from global models like ECMWF and GFS, alongside China Meteorological Administration outlooks, converging on a daytime high near 25°C for Shanghai on May 15. This positioning stems from mid-May climatological norms—historical highs averaging 24-26°C at official stations amid steady seasonal warming and East Asian monsoon influences—bolstered by stable atmospheric conditions over the past week, including mild temperatures around 25°C and scattered clouds limiting extremes. No major deviations like heatwaves or cold fronts have emerged recently, though minor uncertainty persists from potential sea breeze moderation or overnight cloudiness; watch CMA updates and 00Z model runs today for refinements ahead of resolution based on verified station data.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Highest temperature in Shanghai on May 15?
Highest temperature in Shanghai on May 15?
25°C 38%
24°C 31%
26°C 18%
23°C 8%
新規
$39,364 Vol.
新規
$39,364 Vol.
2026/05/15
20°C or below
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
1%
23°C
8%
24°C
31%
25°C
38%
26°C
18%
27°C
7%
28°C
1%
29°C
1%
30°C or higher
<1%
25°C 38%
24°C 31%
26°C 18%
23°C 8%
新規
$39,364 Vol.
新規
$39,364 Vol.
2026/05/15
20°C or below
$5,222 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$3,396 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$4,873 Vol.
1%
23°C
$4,298 Vol.
8%
24°C
$4,004 Vol.
31%
25°C
$2,481 Vol.
38%
26°C
$2,506 Vol.
18%
27°C
$2,954 Vol.
7%
28°C
$4,631 Vol.
1%
29°C
$2,983 Vol.
1%
30°C or higher
$2,192 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket, with 25°C leading at 37% implied probability followed closely by 24°C (26.5%) and 26°C (19%), mirrors the latest forecast guidance from global models like ECMWF and GFS, alongside China Meteorological Administration outlooks, converging on a daytime high near 25°C for Shanghai on May 15. This positioning stems from mid-May climatological norms—historical highs averaging 24-26°C at official stations amid steady seasonal warming and East Asian monsoon influences—bolstered by stable atmospheric conditions over the past week, including mild temperatures around 25°C and scattered clouds limiting extremes. No major deviations like heatwaves or cold fronts have emerged recently, though minor uncertainty persists from potential sea breeze moderation or overnight cloudiness; watch CMA updates and 00Z model runs today for refinements ahead of resolution based on verified station data.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日： May 13, 2026, 12:06 AM ET
音量
$39,364終了日
2026/05/15マーケット開始日
May 13, 2026, 12:06 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket, with 25°C leading at 37% implied probability followed closely by 24°C (26.5%) and 26°C (19%), mirrors the latest forecast guidance from global models like ECMWF and GFS, alongside China Meteorological Administration outlooks, converging on a daytime high near 25°C for Shanghai on May 15. This positioning stems from mid-May climatological norms—historical highs averaging 24-26°C at official stations amid steady seasonal warming and East Asian monsoon influences—bolstered by stable atmospheric conditions over the past week, including mild temperatures around 25°C and scattered clouds limiting extremes. No major deviations like heatwaves or cold fronts have emerged recently, though minor uncertainty persists from potential sea breeze moderation or overnight cloudiness; watch CMA updates and 00Z model runs today for refinements ahead of resolution based on verified station data.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
音量
$39,364終了日
2026/05/15マーケット開始日
May 13, 2026, 12:06 AM ETTrader consensus on Polymarket, with 25°C leading at 37% implied probability followed closely by 24°C (26.5%) and 26°C (19%), mirrors the latest forecast guidance from global models like ECMWF and GFS, alongside China Meteorological Administration outlooks, converging on a daytime high near 25°C for Shanghai on May 15. This positioning stems from mid-May climatological norms—historical highs averaging 24-26°C at official stations amid steady seasonal warming and East Asian monsoon influences—bolstered by stable atmospheric conditions over the past week, including mild temperatures around 25°C and scattered clouds limiting extremes. No major deviations like heatwaves or cold fronts have emerged recently, though minor uncertainty persists from potential sea breeze moderation or overnight cloudiness; watch CMA updates and 00Z model runs today for refinements ahead of resolution based on verified station data.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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外部リンクに注意してください。
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