National Weather Service forecasts and ensemble runs from the GFS and ECMWF models currently favor a Denver high near 78–81 °F on May 16, supporting the market’s leading 78–79 °F outcome at 35 % implied probability. A robust upper-level ridge centered over the central Rockies is driving large-scale subsidence, clear skies, and enhanced solar insolation that efficiently warms the boundary layer from overnight lows near 55 °F; dry antecedent soils further amplify surface heating well above the mid-May climatological normal of 73 °F. Light south-southeast winds and limited afternoon cloud cover favor peak readings in the late afternoon, while an approaching weak shortwave trough introduces the modest uncertainty that differentiates the closely bunched 78–79 °F and 80–81 °F bins. Traders will watch the next 00Z model cycle for any refinement ahead of resolution.