Latest Central Weather Administration forecast models project a daytime high near 30°C in Taipei on May 16 under a strengthening subtropical ridge that promotes light southerly flow and partly cloudy skies. This setup allows moderate solar heating while scattered afternoon showers and elevated humidity from the early Meiyu season cap further warming, keeping 31°C or higher less likely. Mid-May climatology shows average highs in the upper 20s to low 30s, and recent model consensus has held steady without major shifts in steering patterns or instability that would push readings higher. The narrow probability spread reflects traders’ assessment of these atmospheric conditions against historical variability in northern Taiwan’s spring transition. Final observations at Taipei Songshan Airport will determine resolution.