Recent forecast runs from European models and Météo-France show Paris under a stable high-pressure ridge with northeasterly flow and lingering low cloud, capping daytime heating at 16 °C. This setup explains the market-implied 58 % probability for a 16 °C peak, as traders weigh the limited solar insolation and cooler maritime air mass against typical mid-May climatology near 19 °C. Any afternoon clearing could allow brief warming toward 17 °C, consistent with the 13 % odds on that outcome, while continued overcast keeps the distribution tightly centered on the current consensus. Official observations from the Paris-Montsouris station will resolve the market once the daily maximum is recorded.