Current ensemble forecasts from regional models show Hong Kong under typical late-spring subtropical conditions on May 20, with overnight lows most likely settling between 24–27 °C at the official Hong Kong Observatory site. A weak easterly flow and moderate humidity levels are expected to limit radiative cooling, while any scattered showers could further moderate the minimum by a degree or two. Historical May climatology places the average low near 24 °C, and the seasonal outlook from the Hong Kong Observatory indicates normal-to-above-normal temperatures through the period, supporting the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 24–27 °C. Updated model runs in the next 48 hours will be the key catalyst for any shift in these odds.