Official forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory indicate mainly cloudy skies and scattered showers driven by the early southwest monsoon transition, which limits nocturnal radiative cooling and anchors the minimum temperature near 23°C. In Hong Kong’s subtropical climate, mid-May lows typically range from 22–25°C under elevated humidity and persistent cloud cover that suppresses temperature drops below climatological norms. Recent overnight observations in the mid-20s, combined with urban heat-island effects at the official station, reinforce trader consensus at 99.9% implied probability for the 23°C outcome. Short-range model guidance shows minimal spread, though an unexpected clearing of skies and light winds before dawn could allow modest additional cooling and shift the recorded low.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日5月16日の香港の最低気温は?
23°C 99.9%
18℃以下 <1%
19℃ <1%
20℃ <1%
$37,744 Vol.
$37,744 Vol.
18℃以下
<1%
19℃
<1%
20℃
<1%
21℃
<1%
22℃
<1%
23°C
100%
24℃
<1%
25℃
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28℃以上
<1%
23°C 99.9%
18℃以下 <1%
19℃ <1%
20℃ <1%
$37,744 Vol.
$37,744 Vol.
18℃以下
<1%
19℃
<1%
20℃
<1%
21℃
<1%
22℃
<1%
23°C
100%
24℃
<1%
25℃
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28℃以上
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日: May 13, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Official forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory indicate mainly cloudy skies and scattered showers driven by the early southwest monsoon transition, which limits nocturnal radiative cooling and anchors the minimum temperature near 23°C. In Hong Kong’s subtropical climate, mid-May lows typically range from 22–25°C under elevated humidity and persistent cloud cover that suppresses temperature drops below climatological norms. Recent overnight observations in the mid-20s, combined with urban heat-island effects at the official station, reinforce trader consensus at 99.9% implied probability for the 23°C outcome. Short-range model guidance shows minimal spread, though an unexpected clearing of skies and light winds before dawn could allow modest additional cooling and shift the recorded low.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問